2023-09-28 14:46:10 +00:00
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abstract: 'Unemployment rates in countries across the world are strongly correlated
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with GDP. China is an unusual outlier from the pattern, whose official
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government statistics show abnormally low, and suspiciously stable,
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unemployment rates relative to its GDP. This paper reports estimates of
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China''s unemployment rate for its local urban Hukou population using a
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more reliable, nationally representative dataset for that population
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than in prior work, and which spans a longer period of history than in
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the past literature. The unemployment rates we calculate differ
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dramatically from those supplied in official data and are much more
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consistent with what is known about key historical developments in
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China''s labor market. The rate averaged 3.7\% in 1988-1995, when the
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labor market was highly regulated and dominated by state-owned
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enterprises, but rose sharply during the period of mass layoff from 1995
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to 2002, reaching an average of 9.5\% in the subperiod from 2002 to
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2009. The rates were even higher when demographic composition is held
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fixed. We can also calculate labor force participation rates, which are
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not available in official statistics at all. We find that they declined
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throughout the whole period, particularly in 1995-2002 when the
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unemployment rate increased most significantly. We also find that the
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impacts of these changes fell most heavily on the unskilled (women,
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those with less education, and younger individuals). Finally, estimates
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of unemployment and labor force participation rates are also provided
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for all urban residents, including migrants without local urban Hukou,
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and show the same patterns of change over time. (C) 2017 Association for
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Comparative Economic Studies. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights
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reserved.'
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affiliation: 'Feng, SZ (Corresponding Author), Jinan Univ, Inst Econ \& Social Res,
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601 Huangpu Ave West, Guangzhou 510632, Guangdong, Peoples R China.
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Feng, Shuaizhang, Jinan Univ, Inst Econ \& Social Res, 601 Huangpu Ave West, Guangzhou
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510632, Guangdong, Peoples R China.
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Hu, Yingyao; Moffitt, Robert, Johns Hopkins Univ, Dept Econ, Baltimore, MD 21218
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USA.
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Moffitt, Robert, NBER, China Working Grp, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA.'
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author: Feng, Shuaizhang and Hu, Yingyao and Moffitt, Robert
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author-email: 'shuaizhang.feng@foxmail.com
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yhu@jhu.edu
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moffitt@jhu.edu'
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author_list:
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- family: Feng
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given: Shuaizhang
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- family: Hu
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given: Yingyao
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- family: Moffitt
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given: Robert
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da: '2023-09-28'
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doi: 10.1016/j.jce.2017.02.004
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eissn: 1095-7227
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files: []
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issn: 0147-5967
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journal: JOURNAL OF COMPARATIVE ECONOMICS
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keywords: 'Unemployment rate; Labor force participation rate; China; Economic
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transition'
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keywords-plus: ECONOMIC-REFORM; CHILD-CARE; INEQUALITY; STATISTICS; GROWTH; INCOME
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language: English
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month: MAY
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number: '2'
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number-of-cited-references: '32'
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pages: 304-324
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papis_id: 4a505ce00e18dbfbcebdae368290c18b
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ref: Feng2017longrun
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times-cited: '42'
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title: Long run trends in unemployment and labor force participation in urban China
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2023-10-01 08:15:07 +00:00
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type: article
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2023-09-28 14:46:10 +00:00
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unique-id: WOS:000405260300010
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usage-count-last-180-days: '3'
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usage-count-since-2013: '32'
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volume: '45'
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web-of-science-categories: Economics
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year: '2017'
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