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feat(script): Shorten social protection

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@ -487,49 +487,55 @@ as they leverage their disproportionate power to influence politics or diminish
### Social protection
<!-- TODO Should we include Pi2016 on social security? -->
<!-- social assistance benefits and wages -->
@Wang2016 undertake an observational study on the levels of social assistance benefits and wages in a national comparative study within 26 OECD countries.
It finds that real minimum income benefit levels generally increased in most countries from 1990 to 2009, with only a few countries, mostly in Eastern European welfare states, showing decreases during the time frame.
The majority of changes in real benefit levels are from deliberate policy changes and the study calculates them by a comparison of the changes in benefit levels to the changes in consumer prices.
Secondly, it finds that changes for income replacement rates are more mixed, with rates decreasing even in some countries which have increasing real benefits levels.
The study suggests this is because benefit levels are in most cases not linked to wages and policy changes also do not take changes in wages into account resulting in diverging benefit levels and wages, which may lead to exacerbating inequality gaps between income groups.
@Wang2016 conduct a comparative study on social assistance benefits and wages across 26 OECD countries from 1990 to 2009.
The analysis finds an overall increase in real minimum income benefits in most countries, mostly excepting Eastern European countries,
attributing these changes to deliberate policy adjustments rather than inflation.[^wang-channel]
However, results for income replacement rates vary,
with some countries experiencing decreases despite rising real benefits.
The authors suggest this discrepancy is explained by the decoupling of benefit levels from wages and the absence of wage considerations in policy changes, potentially exacerbating income inequalities between income groups.
[^wang-channel]: The study calculates the rise in real benefit levels by comparing the changes in benefit levels to the changes in consumer prices.
<!-- conditional cash transfer -->
@Debowicz2014 conduct a study looking at the impact of the cash transfer programme Oportunidades in Mexico, conditioned on a household's children school attendance, on income inequality among others.
It finds that a combination of effects raises the average income of the poorest households by 23 percent.
The authors argue in the short run this benefits households through the direct cash influx itself, as well as generating a positive wage effect benefitting those who keep their children at work.
For the estimation of income inequality it uses the Gini coefficient.
Additionally, over the long-term for the children in the model there is a direct benefit for those whose human capital is increased due to the programme, but also an indirect benefit for those who did not increase their human capital, because of the increased scarcity of unskilled labor as a secondary effect.
Due to the relatively low cost of the programme if correctly targeted, it seems to have a significantly positive effect on the Mexican economy and its income equality.
@Debowicz2014 evaluate the impact of the cash transfer programme Oportunidades on income inequality in Mexico.[^debowicz-oportunidades]
The study reports an increase of 23 percent in the average income of the poorest households,
attributed to both the direct cash influx and the beneficial effect for parents keeping their children in school.
Over the long term, there is a benefit for children whose human capital increases due to the programme.
There are also indirect benefits for children whose human capital did not increase,
due to increased scarcity of unskilled labour as a secondary effect,
thus suggesting a positive economic impact if correctly targeted.
In a study on the labour force impacts for women @Hardoy2015 look at the effects of reducing overall child care costs in Norway through subsidies.
It finds that overall the reductions in child care cost increased the female labour supply in the country (by about 5 per cent),
while there were no significant impacts on mothers which already participated in the labour market.
It also finds some internal heterogeneity, with the impact being strongest for low-education mothers and low-income households,
a finding the authors expected due to day care expenditure representing a larger part of those households' budgets thus creating a larger impact.
Though it may alternatively also be generated by the lower average pre-intervention employment rate for those households.
Interestingly when disaggregating by native and immigrant mothers there is only a significant impact on native mothers,
though the authors do not form an inference on why this difference would be.
A limitation of the study is that there was a simultaneous child care capacity increase in the country,
which may bias the labour market results due to being affected by both the cost reduction and the capacity increase.
[^debowicz-oportunidades]: The Oportunidades programme conditions its cash benefits on the school attendance of a household's children. While this review focuses on the results for income inequality using the Gini coefficient, other indicators are also reported in the full study.
<!-- childcare subsidy -->
Investigating the impact of childcare subsidies on the female labour force,
@Hardoy2015 find an overall increase in female labour supply (roughly 5 percent),
though without significant impact on mothers already participating in the labour market.
Notably, the impact was greatest for low-education mothers and low-income households since their daycare expenditures constitute a larger budgetary share,
though it may also be due to lower pre-intervention employment rates for those households.[^hardoy-limits]
[^hardoy-limits]: There was a concurrent increase in childcare capacity which potentially biases the results due to the simultaneous cost reductions and capacity increases. Interestingly, significant effects were only observed among native mothers when disaggregating between migrant and native-born, though reasons for the distinction remain unspecified.
<!-- health care -->
@Carstens2018 conduct an analysis of the potential factors influencing mentally ill individuals in the United States to participate in the labour force, using correlation between different programmes of Medicaid and labour force status.
In trying to find labour force participation predictors it finds employment motivating factors in reduced depression and anxiety, increased responsibility and problem-solving and stress management being positive predictors.
In turn increased stress, discrimination based on their mental, loss of free time, loss of government benefits and tests for illegal drugs were listed as barriers negatively associated with labour force participation.
For the government benefits, it finds significant variations for the different varieties of Medicaid programmes, with the strongest negative labour force participation correlated to Medicaid ABD, a programme for which it has to be demonstrated that an individual cannot work due to their disability.
The authors suggest this shows the primary channel of the programme becoming a benefit trap, with disability being determined by not working and benefits disappearing when participants enter the labour force, creating dependency to the programme as a primary barrier.
Two limitations of the study are its small sample size due to a low response rate, and an over-representation of racial minorities, women and older persons in the sample mentioned as introducing possible downward bias for measured labour force participation rates.
@Carstens2018 analyse the factors affecting labour force participation rates of mentally ill individuals in the US,
correlating it with various Medicaid programmes.
Key motivators for participation are determined to be reduced depression and anxiety for which positive predictors are increased responsibility, problem-solving and stress management.
Identified barriers include increased stress, discrimination based on mental state, loss of free time, tests for illegal drugs and loss of government benefits.
Medicaid ABD (Aged, Blind, Disabled) additionally had a strong negative correlation with participation,
due to its requirement of demonstrating inability to work creating a negative dependency loop.[^carstens-limits]
[^carstens-limits]: This loop may create a benefit trap with disability determined through abstention from the labour market and benefits disappearing when entering the labour force. The overall identified barriers may, however, be skewed upwards due to an over-representation of racial minorities, women and older individuals in the study's relatively small sample size.
<!-- UBI -->
<!-- TODO Potentially mention single sentence of Standing also looking into UBI -->
@Cieplinski2021 undertake a simulation study on the income inequality effects of both a policy targeting a reduction in working time and the introduction of a UBI in Italy.
It finds that while both decrease overall income inequality, measured through Gini coefficient, they do so through different channels.
While provision of a UBI sustains aggregate demand, thereby spreading income in a more equitable manner,
working time reductions significantly decrease aggregate demand through lower individual income but significantly increases labour force participation and thus employment.
It also finds that through these channels of changing aggregate demand, the environmental outcomes are oppositional, with work time reduction decreasing and UBI increasing the overall ecological footprint.
One limitation of the study is the modelling assumption that workers will have to accept both lower income and lower consumption levels under a policy of work time reduction through stable labour market entry for the results to hold.
@Cieplinski2021 conducted a simulation study on a working hours reduction and introduction of UBI in Italy,
finding that both decreased overall income inequality through different mechanisms.
UBI sustains aggregate demand, promoting more equtiable income distribution,
while working time reductions significantly decrease aggregate demand through lower individual incomes,
but in turn increases overall labour force participation and employment.[^cieplinski-notes]
[^cieplinski-notes]: Through these mechanisms environmental outcomes are also oppositional, with work time reduction decreasing the ecological footprint while UBI increases it. However, these results only hold for the assumption that workers will have to accept both lower income and consumption levels (through stable labour market entry) under reduction of working time.
## Structural factors