2023-09-28 14:46:10 +00:00
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abstract: 'Purpose European welfare states, including Finland, have recently
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introduced reforms that aim to delay the average timing of retirement.
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The degree of success of these reforms will depend on future
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institutional and societal developments that influence retirement
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timing. The purpose of this paper is to identify such scenarios in the
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Finnish context.
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Design/methodology/approach The study employs the Delphi method by
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interviewing anonymous experts from a variety of relevant organisations
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and fields in Finland, then sending them a scaled on-line questionnaire
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from the initial findings to elicit views on the likelihood of different
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scenarios influencing retirement timing over the next 20 years.
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Findings While the experts perceived that a raised state pension age and
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a removal of early retirement options will inevitably delay retirement
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on average, multiple scenarios were believe to hinder this trend. These
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included domestic elderly care becoming more common, technology-induced
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restructuring of labour markets and shortening working weeks, all of
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which were associated with widening socioeconomic inequalities in
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retirement timing. The predicted inequalities were attributed to a
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polarisation concerning older workers'' abilities to extend their careers
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and to plan their retirement. The planned mass privatisation of health
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and social services in Finland was perceived to accelerate this outcome.
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Practical implications The study suggests that a significant policy
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challenge in face of upcoming societal trends is to make delayed
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retirement a more equally viable option.
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Originality/value This paper demonstrates the usefulness of scenario
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building for anticipating possible developments that may influence the
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success of policies aimed at delaying retirement.'
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affiliation: 'Niemi, T (Corresponding Author), Univ Helsinki, Dept Social Res, Helsinki,
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Finland.
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Niemi, Tuukka, Univ Helsinki, Dept Social Res, Helsinki, Finland.
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Komp, Kathrin, Univ Helsinki, Fac Social Sci, Helsinki, Finland.'
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author: Niemi, Tuukka and Komp, Kathrin
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author-email: tuukka.niemi@helsinki.fi
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author_list:
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- family: Niemi
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given: Tuukka
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- family: Komp
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given: Kathrin
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da: '2023-09-28'
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doi: 10.1108/IJSSP-04-2018-0067
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eissn: 1758-6720
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files: []
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issn: 0144-333X
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journal: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SOCIOLOGY AND SOCIAL POLICY
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keywords: Scenarios; Ageing; Pension reform; Retirement age; Social change
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keywords-plus: 'LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS; PENSION REFORM; AGE; GERMANY; DETERMINANTS;
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DECISIONS; ATTITUDES; POLICIES; PEOPLE; EUROPE'
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language: English
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number: 11-12
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number-of-cited-references: '53'
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pages: 1071-1085
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papis_id: a08f108dcb919bf4c53868f44f596c59
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ref: Niemi2018retirementtiming
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times-cited: '1'
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title: 'Retirement timing in a future welfare state: a Finnish Delphi study'
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2023-10-01 08:15:07 +00:00
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type: article
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2023-09-28 14:46:10 +00:00
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unique-id: WOS:000445061900010
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usage-count-last-180-days: '0'
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usage-count-since-2013: '10'
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volume: '38'
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web-of-science-categories: Sociology
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year: '2018'
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