2023-09-28 14:46:10 +00:00
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abstract: 'Achieving the international 2 degrees C limit climate policy requires
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stringent reductions in GHG emissions by mid-century, with some
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countries simultaneously facing development-related challenges. South
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Africa is a middle-income developing country with high rates of
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unemployment and high levels of poverty, as well as an
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emissions-intensive economy. South Africa takes into account an
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assessment of what a fair contribution to reducing global emissions
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might be, and is committed to a `peak, plateau and decline'' emissions
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trajectory with absolute emissions specified for 2025 and 2030, while
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noting the need to address development imperatives. This work utilizes
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an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model (e-SAGE) linked to
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an energy-system optimization model (TIMES) to explore improving
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development metrics within a 14 GtCO(2)e cumulative energy sector carbon
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constraint through to 2050 for South Africa. The electricity sector
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decarbonizes by retiring coal-fired power plants or replacing with
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concentrated solar power, solar photovoltaics and wind generation.
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Industry and tertiary-sector growth remains strong throughout the time
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period, with reduced energy intensity via fuel-switching and efficiency
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improvements. From 2010 to 2050, the model results in the unemployment
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rate decreasing from 25\% to 12\%, and the percentage of people living
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below the poverty line decreasing from 49\% to 18\%. Total energy GHG
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emissions were reduced by 39\% and per capita emissions decreased by
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62\%.
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Policy relevance
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Lower poverty and inequality are goals that cannot be subordinated to
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lower GHG emissions. Policy documents in South Africa outline objectives
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such as reducing poverty and inequality with a key focus on education
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and employment. In its climate policy and Intended Nationally Determined
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Contribution (INDC), South Africa is committed to a peak, plateau and
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decline GHG emissions trajectory. As in many developing countries, these
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policy goals require major transformations in the energy system while
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simultaneously increasing affordable access to safe and convenient
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energy services for those living in energy poverty. The modelled
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scenario in this work focuses on employment and poverty reduction under
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a carbon constraint, a novel combination with results that can provide
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information for a holistic climate and development policy framework.
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This study has focused on the long term, which is important in
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generating clear policy signals for the necessary large-scale
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investments.'
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affiliation: 'Altieri, KE (Corresponding Author), Univ Cape Town, Energy Res Ctr,
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Private Bag X3, ZA-7701 Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa.
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Altieri, Katye E.; Trollip, Hilton; Caetano, Tara; Hughes, Alison; Merven, Bruno;
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Winkler, Harald, Univ Cape Town, Energy Res Ctr, Private Bag X3, ZA-7701 Cape Town,
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Western Cape, South Africa.'
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author: Altieri, Katye E. and Trollip, Hilton and Caetano, Tara and Hughes, Alison
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and Merven, Bruno and Winkler, Harald
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author-email: katye.altieri@uct.ac.za
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author_list:
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- family: Altieri
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given: Katye E.
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- family: Trollip
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given: Hilton
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- family: Caetano
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given: Tara
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- family: Hughes
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given: Alison
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- family: Merven
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given: Bruno
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- family: Winkler
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given: Harald
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da: '2023-09-28'
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doi: 10.1080/14693062.2016.1150250
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eissn: 1752-7457
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files: []
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issn: 1469-3062
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journal: CLIMATE POLICY
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keywords: 'development pathways; economic models; employment; energy models; GHG
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reductions; mitigation scenarios'
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language: English
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number: 1, SI
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number-of-cited-references: '42'
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orcid-numbers: 'Altieri, Katye/0000-0002-6778-4079
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Winkler, Harald/0000-0002-5826-4071
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Trollip, Hilton/0000-0002-2591-8139'
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pages: S78-S91
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papis_id: cad49281a47a315f5e0efdc2e5b03306
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ref: Altieri2016achievingdevelopment
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researcherid-numbers: 'Altieri, Katye/GWV-4512-2022
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Winkler, Harald/AAF-6226-2020
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'
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times-cited: '30'
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title: Achieving development and mitigation objectives through a decarbonization development
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pathway in South Africa
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2023-10-01 08:15:07 +00:00
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type: article
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2023-09-28 14:46:10 +00:00
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unique-id: WOS:000445036800006
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usage-count-last-180-days: '3'
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usage-count-since-2013: '18'
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volume: '16'
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web-of-science-categories: Environmental Studies; Public Administration
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year: '2016'
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