afd-development-contexts/notes/vietnam/2208151026_literature-economic-changes.md

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Missing

  • informal/formal switches and stats

[ ] vandeWalle2004

results:

  • looks at causes of poverty and incidence and participation in rural off-farm activities (1993-1998)
    • some common causative factors, education, region of residence
    • however generally processes determining both are not the same
  • participation in rural non-farm market economy allows some route out of poverty but certainly not all

[ ] McCaig2013

results:

  • analyzing structural economic changes 1990-2008
    • structural changes account for 1/3rd of labor productivity growth (which was ~5.1% per year)
  • move from agriculture toward services and manufacturing, from household businesses to firms in enterprise sector, reallocation of workers from state-owned to private domestic and foreign owned firms
    • especially manufacturing grew (8->14% of workforce)

primary determinants: changes in trade policy, expansion of employment in foreign owned firms, declining role of state owned enterprises

[ ] McCaig2014

results:

  • effects of US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (positive export shock), due to large US tariff reductions on Vietnamese exports
    • increased 5% share of manufacturing workers
    • slightly increased gap of labor productivity

[ ] McCaig2015

results:

  • effects of economic changes to workforce transitions informal -> formal
    • younger workers, esp migrants, more likely to work in formal sector and stay in it
    • decline in aggregate share in informal employment bc of changes between and within birth cohorts
    • younger, educated, male, urban workers more likely to switch than others
    • little educated, older, female, rural workers least likely to switch
    • formalization coincides with occupational upgrading