fix(data): Add RD approach to Dustmann2012

data/extracted/Dustmann2012.yml

@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ group: working mothers
 data: national administrative Social Security Records (1975-2008)
 
 design: quasi-experimental
-method: difference-in-difference analysis
+method: difference-in-difference analysis; regression discontinuity
 sample: 13000
 unit: individual
 representativeness: national, census

manuscript/article.qmd

@@ -276,51 +276,65 @@ Summary of main findings for institutional policies
 
 {{< landscape >}}
 
-### Labour laws and regulatory systems
+### Labour regulation and paid leave
-
-@Adams2015 study the effects of labour, business and credit regulations and looks at their long-term correlations to income inequality in developing countries from 1970 to 2012.
-Additionally, the study looks at the effects of FDI and school enrolment, which will be reviewed in their respective policy sections.
-They find that in MENA, SSA, LAC and to some extend AP increased labour and business regulations are actually negatively related to equitable income distribution, with market regulation not having significant effects.
-The authors identify developing countries lacking in institutional capability to accomplish regulatory policies optimized for benefits and see the need for policies requiring more specific targeting of inequality reduction as their agenda.
-Overall, the authors suggest that regulatory policy in developing countries needs to be built for their specific contexts and not exported from developed countries due to their different institutional capabilities and structural make-up.
-The study is limited in its design focus relying purely on the macro-level regional analyses and can thus,
-when finding correlations towards income inequality, not necessarily drill down into their qualitative root causes.
 
 <!-- maternity leave and benefits -->
-@Broadway2020 study the introduction of universal paid maternal leave in Australia, looking at its impacts on mothers returning to work and the conditions they return under.
+@Dustmann2012 analyse the long-run effects of a series of increases in the period of paid leave for mothers in Germany,
-The study finds that, while there is a short-term decrease of mothers returning to work since they make use of the introduced leave period, over the long-term (after six to nine months) there is a significant positive impact on return to work.
+first up to 18 months and then extending unpaid leave up to 36 months.
-Furthermore, there is a positive impact on returning to work in the same job and under the same conditions,
+Though primarily focused on children's outcomes,
-the effects of which are stronger for more disadvantaged mothers (measured through income, education and access to employer-funded leave).
+it also analyses the policy's effects on the return to work rates and cumulative incomes of the mothers.[^dustmann-childoutcomes]
-This suggests that the intervention reduced the opportunity costs for delaying the return to work, and especially for those women that did not have employer-funded leave options, directly benefiting more disadvantaged mothers.
+While increases of paid leave periods (up to 6 months) significantly increased incomes,
-Some potential biases of the study are its inability to account for child-care costs, as well as not being able to fully exclude selection bias into motherhood.
+longer periods (up to 10 months) saw a decrease with marginal significance for low-income mothers.
-There also remains the potential of results being biased through pre-birth labour supply effects or the results of the financial crisis, which may create a down-ward bias for either the short- or long-term effects.
+Further increases, including the unpaid but job-protected increase to 36 months,
-
+significantly decreased cumulative incomes across income brackets.[^cumulative]
-@Dustmann2012 analyse the long-run effects on children's outcomes of increasing the period of paid leave for mothers in Germany.
+For those returning to work, there is a significant increase in the months away from work among all wage segments for all paid leave period increases,
-While the study focuses on the children's outcomes, it also analyses the effects on the return to work rates and cumulative incomes of the policies within the first 40 months after childbirth.
+roughly corresponding to the respective provided leave length.
-It finds that, while short-term increases of paid leave periods (up to 6 months) significantly increased incomes, over longer periods (10-36 months) the cumulative incomes in fact decreased significantly,
+Still, similar numbers of mothers return once the leave period ends,
-marginally for low-wage mothers for 10 month periods, and across all wage segments for 36 month periods.
+with significant decreases for the longer leave periods from 18 to 36 months.
-For the share of mothers returning to work, it finds that there is a significant increase in the months away from work among all wage segments for all paid leave period increases, positively correlated with their length.
-Still similar numbers of mothers return once the leave period ends, though with significant decreases for leave periods from 18 to 36 months.
-For its analysis of long-term educational outcomes on children, however, it does not find any evidence for the expansions improving children's outcomes, even suggesting a possible decrease of educational attainment for the paid leave extension to 36 months.[^dustmann-childoutcomes]
 Some limitations of the study include its sample being restricted to mothers who go on maternity leave and some control group identification restrictions possibly introducing some sampling bias.
 
-[^dustmann-childoutcomes]: The authors suggest that the negative effect for children under the long-term paid leave program of 36 months may stem from the fact that children require more external stimuli (aside from the mother) before this period ends, as well as the negative long-term effects of the mother's significantly reduced income for the long-term leave periods.
+[^cumulative]: Cumulative income being defined as the sum of mother's income until the child is 40 months old, combined from monthly earnings if working or monthly child benefit if not working but eligible for paid leave.
 
-In a study on the effects of introductions of a variety of maternity leave laws in Japan, @Mun2018 look at the effects on employment numbers and job quality in managerial positions of women.
+[^dustmann-childoutcomes]: For its analysis of long-term educational outcomes on children, however, it does not find any evidence for the expansions improving children's outcomes, even suggesting a possible decrease of educational attainment for the paid leave extension to 36 months. The authors suggest that the negative effect for children under the long-term paid leave program of 36 months may stem from the fact that children require more external stimuli (aside from the mother) before this period ends, as well as the negative long-term effects of the mother's significantly reduced income for the long-term leave periods.
-Contrary to notions of demand-side mechanisms of the welfare state paradox, with women being less represented in high-authority employment positions due to hiring or workplace discrimination against them with increased maternity benefits,
-it finds that this is not the case for the Japanese labour market between 1992 and 2009.
-There were no increases in hiring discrimination against women, and either no significant change in promotions for firms not providing paid leave before the laws or instead a positive impact on promotions for firms that already provided paid leave.
-The authors suggest the additional promotions were primarily based on voluntary compliance of firms in order to maintain positive reputations,
-signalled through a larger positive response to incentive-based laws than for mandate-based ones.
-Additionally, the authors suggest that the welfare paradox may rather be due to supply-side mechanisms, based on individual career planning, as well as reinforced along existing gender divisions of household labour which may increase alongside the laws.
-Limitations of the study include foremost its limited generalizability due to the unique Japanese institutional labour market structure (with many employments, for example, being within a single firm until retirement), as well as no ability yet to measure the true causes and effects of adhering to the voluntary incentive-based labour policies, with lasting effects or done as symbolic compliance efforts and mere impression management.
 
-@Davies2022 conduct a study on the return to work ratios for high-skill women workers in public academic universities in the United Kingdom, comparing the results for those in fixed-term contract work versus those in open-ended contracts.
+@Mun2018, taking a look at hiring discrimination due to introducing maternity leave laws in Japan,
-It finds that there is a significantly decreased return to work probability for those working under fixed-term contracts, and most universities providing policies with more limited access to maternity payment for fixed-contract staff.
+find similar results:[^laws-japan]
-This is possibly due to provisions in the policies implicitly working against utilization under fixed-terms:
+no increase in hiring discrimination or job promotions was visible and the laws in fact had a partly positive impact on job promotions.
-there are strict policies on payments if a contract ends before the maternity leave period is over, and obligations on repayments if not staying in the position long enough after rtw.
+They argue these positive impacts may predominantly be due to voluntary firm compliance to maintain positive reputations,
-Additionally, most policies require long-term continuous service before qualifying for enhanced payments in the maternity policies.
+arguing for an incentive-based approach over mandated ones though no causal analysis was undertaken.[^welfare-paradox]
-There is high internal heterogeneity between the universities, primarily due to the diverging maternity policy documents, only a small number of the overall dataset providing favourable conditions for fixed-term work within.
+Their analysis focused on women in managerial positions which may bias findings away from lower income brackets.
+
+[^laws-japan]: The study focuses on the 1992 introduced Childcare Leave Act which, as the first major childcare policy, mandated one year childcare leave per child for both men and women,
+and the 2005 introduced Act on Advancement of Measures to Support Raising Next-Generation Children which focused on yielding incentives for companies to provide paid leave to at least 70 percent of its female employees and have at least one male employee taking paid leave.
+
+[^welfare-paradox]: These results run contrary to notions of demand-side mechanisms of the welfare state paradox, with women being less represented in high-authority employment positions due to hiring or workplace discrimination against them with increased maternity benefits. The authors suggest that the welfare paradox may rather be due to supply-side mechanisms, based on individual career planning, as well as reinforced along existing gender divisions of household labour which may increase alongside the laws.
+
+@Broadway2020 study the introduction of universal paid maternal leave in Australia,
+analysing the impacts on mothers' return to work as well as the conditions they return under.
+They also find a short-term decrease of mothers returning to work since they make use of the introduced leave period,
+but a long-term (after six to nine months) significant positive impact on return to work.
+Furthermore, there is a positive impact on returning to the same job and under the same conditions,
+the effects of which are stronger for more disadvantaged mothers.[^aus-disadvantaged]
+This suggests that the intervention reduced the opportunity costs for delaying the return to work,
+especially for those women that did not have employer-funded leave options.
+The study cannot account for child-care costs or completely exclude selection bias into motherhood or through exogenous shocks.
+
+[^aus-disadvantaged]: Disadvantages measured as a combination of income, education and access to employer-funded leave.
+
+@Davies2022 focus on the difference in return to work ratios between working under fixed-term and open-ended contracts for high-skill women working in UK public universities.
+There is both a significantly decreased return to work probability for those with fixed-term contracts,
+and most universities provide policies with more limited access to maternity payment for fixed-term contracted staff.
+The results suggest strict payment and repayment policies for early contract termination and the requirement for long-term service to qualify for enhanced maternity benefits may deter utilization under fixed-term contracts. Additionally, significant internal heterogeneity exists regarding maternity policy documents,
+with few offering favourable conditions within fixed-term contracts.
+
+@Adams2015 examine the macro-level relationships between business and credit regulations, labour laws and income inequality in developing countries from 1970 to 2012.
+In MENA, SSA, LAC and to some extent AP, they find stricter labour and business regulations actually negatively related to equitable income distribution,
+with market regulation having no significant impacts.
+They identify lacking institutional capability to accomplish regulatory policies optimized for benefits in developing countries and see the need for policies aimed at more specific targeting of inequality reduction.[^adams-targeting]
+The study also analyses the effects of FDI and school enrolment which are reviewed in their respective sections,
+though its focus remains primarily on regional trends rather than individual factors as causes for inequality.
+
+[^adams-targeting]: The authors furthermore suggest that regulatory policy in developing countries thus needs to be built specifically for their individual contexts and can not be exported in unaltered form from developed countries due to different structural make-up and institutional capabilities.
 
 ### Minimum wage laws