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# Research Vietnam
* focus on:
* income inequality, based on bottom 40%, Gini coefficient, other inequality measures
* focus on: Vietnam varation in incidence of catastrophic weather events (e.g. floodings) and unequal impact of these events on households
## Literature
### Benjamin2017 - Growth with Equity: Income Inequality in Vietnam, 2002–14
* economic/trade liberalization reforms:
* Enterprise Law (2000)
* US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (2001)
* accession to WTO (2007)
* tightly integrated in international economy:
* rising inflows of FDI
* increased trade-to-GDP ratio
* economic shifts:
* ongoing shift of GDP/labor from agriculture to manufacturing/services [@Cling2009; @McCaig2013; @McCaig2014; @McCaig2015]
* sustained high rates of overall economic growth
* even throughout 2008+ (with declining external demand, tightening monetary/fiscal policies) (real) GDP per capita grew 5.1% annually
* similar trajectory to China - even more remarkable rates of growth over a longer period of time but at cost of higher inequality
* marked reduction in absolute poverty in country
* rate of decline slowed somewhat since mid-2000s [@WorldBank2013; @VASS2006; @VASS2011]
* some decline can be directly attributed to liberalization of markets instead of growth more generally [@McCaig2011; @Benjamin2004; @Edmonds2006]
* inequality in Vietnam is largely intersectional between ethnicity, regional situation, and a strong rural-urban divide
* persistent poverty severe among ethnic minorities [@Baulch2012]
* [@WorldBank2013; Baulch2012; vandeWalle2001; vandeWalle2004]
* consumption inequality since early 1990s has been relatively constant, moving within narrow range
* income inequality markers werwe (and are) significantly higher than consumption measures, but dropped sharply in the 1990s
* flattening off in 2000s
* robust grwoth in agricultural incomes were and continue to play an important role in moderating inequality increases (through other sources of income) [@Benjamin2004]
* looks at income growth and inequality over time (2002-2014) and importantly the income sources
* "The decompositions allow us to identify the income sources, and thus markets, that underlie Vietnam's particular experience of structural change, growth, and distribution of income." [27]
* construction household per capita income, including a moderate grwoth slow-down in 2010.
* **overall small income inequality decrease in Vietnam (2002-2014)**
* suggests growth has been accompanied by equity extending beyond poverty reduction
* rural inequality slightly increased, urban decreased
* rural driven by slow income grwoth among ethnic minorities - a growing proportion of population
* incomes of minorities rose, but gap to ethnic majority still widened
* but offset by decreased urban-rural inequality
* decomposition insights:
* farm incomes remain "important, relatively equalizing source of opportunity for rural households"" [27]
* growth of wage income driven by rising earnings among wage-workers more than increased participation in wage labor
* sampled stratified into
* households, communes, districts, provinces, regions
While in 2002 the ethnic minority population living in rural areas was below 15% in 2002, it rose to over 18% in 2014 - both due to higher fertility among minorities and ethnic majority Kinh urbanizing at a higher rate - and the ratio of Kinh to minority incomes rose to more than 2.0 in 2014 [@Benjamin2017].
The same study finds that income inequality rose even more sharply *within* ethnic minorities, while that of rural Kinh, though increasing from 2002 to 2014, fell back to 2002 levels around 2014.
These findings suggest that the primary drivers of rural income inequality are a growing gap between Kinh and minorities while at the same time a similar rising inequality develops among minority rural populations themselves.
* structural income composition: [41]
* 2002
* family business & wage income main drivers of income inequality (overall) (>60%) (account for higher share of inequality than income)
* crop and agricultural sidelines income is relatively equalizing (account for lower share of inequality than income)
* Gini coefficient: wage and family business very unequally distributed; also remittances and 'other incomes' also unequal but overall small share means they have lower impact
* 2014:
* wage income now 42% of total income (30.5% 2002), less unequally distributed, suggesting a labor market that is both more prevalent and more equally distributed
* however, still majorly correlated with overall income thus driver of inequality (as are remittances)
* overall, points to labor markets and wage labor opportunities as driver of equality during high growth BUT this is for overall population, not rural/minority population
<!-- TODO find study for vietnam minority/rural population income inequality (within/to Kinh) -->
* location inequality:
* fallen dramatically, inequality increasingly within-location outcome, less due to differences between locations
* primarily due to migration across locations
* true for differences between urban/rural within/between provinces
Overall: - slight reduction of of inequality through reduction in influence of wage labor on inequality while existing within-rural inequalities, those between Kinh and minorities, and those within minorities are further pushed apart.
<!-- TODO look at 2 lowest quintiles -->
### Bui2019 - Determinants of Rural-Urban Inequality in Vietnam: Detailed Decomposition Analyses Based on Unconditional Quantile Regressions
* examines determinants of rural-urban gap of household welfare in Vietnam through detailed decomposition analyses (consumption inequality) 2008-2012
* basic education primary factor being beneficial to rural poort and ethnic minorities (in improving living standards)
* remittances improve rural welfare but do not help reducing within or between-inequality
* policy should ensure easy education access and support for self-employed to raise and stabilize income (instead of wage work, see @Benjamin2017)
* other studies on income inequality [@Imai2011; Imbert2011; Takahashi2007; vandeWalle2001]
* most have tendency to mask within-group heterogeneity
* e.g. within rural area there is high degree of heterogeneity depending on geographic characteristics (remoteness) or cultural factors [@Cao2008]
* previous studies on urban-rural expenditure:
* @Thu2014 - urban-rural inequality continued to increase over years due to both covariate effects and returns to those covariate effects
* in 90s until 2002, but marginally decreased 2002-2006 [also @Fritzen2005]
* @Nguyen2007 - welfare disparity mainly explained by impact of structural effects
* return to education, ethnicity, agricultural activies dramatically changed from 93-98
* return to education improved the most
* -> suggested development policy had urban bias (better education, more likely to benefit from economic reform)
* confirmed by @Fesselmeyer2010 - Theil Index decomposition found period inequality within rural-urban sectors remained stable but between inequality increased 61.9%
* @Cao2008 - within-gap for 2002-2004
* this study builds upon their insights and uses reweighted regressions to arrive at rebust results
* in 90s widening gap between urban and rural
* in last decade mostly within-group disparity (due to number of salaried workers in households within each sector)
* in 2000s within-group inequality including regional, rural-urban, ethnic, gender increased/newly analyzed
Doi Moi policies: controlling credit growth, reducing subsidies to state-owned enterprises, besides opening economy to international trade
results:
* urban-rural gap increasing in 2010, decreasing afterwards
* effects of primary&secondary education on expenditure have become more positive across distribution in rural sector in recent years
* -> suggests welfare inequality results from inequality in opportunity to improve human capital (agrees with @Thu2014)
* thus, with within inequality as main overal inequality contributor, and large proportion of uneducated heads of households in rural sectors, facilitating education access for disadvantaged groups (poor households and ethnic minorities) would narrow gap within and between
* higher education widens inequality gap again (between&within)
* low social mobility among rural poor
* e.g. they do not get the same social insurance as urban residents
### WorldBank2013
* marked reduction in absolute poverty in country
* rate of decline slowed somewhat since mid-2000s [@WorldBank2013; @VASS2006; @VASS2011]
* some decline can be directly attributed to liberalization of markets instead of growth more generally [@McCaig2011; @Benjamin2004; @Edmonds2006]
* inequality in Vietnam is largely intersectional between ethnicity, regional situation, and a strong rural-urban divide
* persistent poverty severe among ethnic minorities [@Baulch2012]
* focuses on consumption inequality
## Descriptive statistical analysis ideas
real GDP per capita growth rate (see @Benjamin2017, fn.1)

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## Script
Vietnam's economy is now firmly in the third decade of ongoing economic reform (*Doi Moi*) as a market-based economy,
which lead to remarkable growth phases through opening the economy to international trade while,
seen over the bulk of its population, attempting to keep inequality rates managed through policies of controlling credit and reducing subsidies to state-owned enterprises [@Bui2019].
<!-- TODO find better source - World Bank? -->
Early income studies also generally highlighted the important role of agricultural incomes in reducing, or at the very not exacerbating, income inequality [@Benjamin2004].
<!-- geographical inequality -->
<!-- rural inequality -->
In the 1990s, as the initial stages of the Doi Moi reform bore fruit with economic growth,
the first amplifications of inequalities along new rural-urban boundaries became equally visible.
There are two complementary views on the primary dimensions of rural inequalities.
On the one hand, the urban-rural divide may be driven by structural effects:
the welfare returns to education and agricultural activities changed dramatically from,
and with it the requirements on policy adaptations required for stemming inequality.
Nguyen et al. [-@Nguyen2007] argue this for the period of 1993-1998, with their findings that income returns to education improved dramatically over this time and arguing through this that suggested development policies had a strictly urban bias ---
on the whole they would benefit both from better education and vastly benefit from the restructuring of Vietnam's economy.
This view was in turn confirmed when Theil Index decomposition found within-sector inequality remaining largely stable while between-sector inequality rose dramatically [@Fesselmeyer2010].
On the other, Thu Le and Booth [-@Thu2014] argue that the urban-rural inequality continued to increase over the years due to both covariate effects and the returns to those covariate effects.
<!-- TODO look into covariate effects and what they are/mean -->
The gap between urban and rural sectors grew, a gap which would continue to widen until 2002, when within-sector rural inequalities started to become more important for inequalities than those between the sectors [@Fritzen2005; @Thu2014].
In the time of within-sector inequality becoming more pronounced many studies, while important contributions to continued inequality research, had a tendency to mask those inequalities in favor of continued analysis of between-sector trends ---
often to the detriment of the high degree of heterogeneity depending on geographic characteristics such as remoteness or cultural factors, as Cao and Akita [-@Cao2008] note.
In a recent study, Bui and Imai [-@Bui2019] build on the insights of these viewpoints and also find access to basic education the linchpin of improving rural welfare while its lack combined with economic restructuring precluded many from equal opportunities toward human capital improvement.
They found that, as within-sector became more pronounced again after 2010,
the large proportion of uneducated heads of households in rural sectors and low social mobility of rural poor combine to increase within-sector inequality while the economy overall changing toward salaried work compounded within-rural and urban-rural disparities.
Benjamin et al. [-@Benjamin2017] expand on this over a longer time-frame by decomposing different household income sources underlying Vietnam's structural economic changes.
They find that, while there is an overall decrease in income inequality throughout Vietnam between 2002 and 2014 and the urban-rural divide also continued its downward trend,
rural inequality indeed increased over this time.
Wage income and family business income were the main drivers of overall inequality in 2002 (accounting for over 30% of income but 60% of inequality) and remittances add a small share on top,
which, while decreased in effect (risen to 42% of total income),
remain majorly correlated with income distributions and thus income inequality.
Thus, while the study points to more prevalent and equally distributed labor markets and wage labor opportunities,
these effects apply to the overall population and not just within-rural inequalities which,
as we will see, are driven in large part by ethnicity, education and environmental factors.
<!-- poor/poverty <40%; mention low social mobility: different social insurances [@Bui2019] -->
* marked reduction in absolute poverty in country
* rate of decline slowed somewhat since mid-2000s [@WorldBank2013; @VASS2006; @VASS2011]
* some decline can be directly attributed to liberalization of markets instead of growth more generally [@McCaig2011; @Benjamin2004; @Edmonds2006]
* inequality in Vietnam is largely intersectional between ethnicity, regional situation, and a strong rural-urban divide
<!-- minority income inequality -->
* persistent poverty severe among ethnic minorities [@Baulch2012]
* [@WorldBank2013; Baulch2012; vandeWalle2001; vandeWalle2004]
Ethnic minorities in Vietnam are distinctly over-represented in poverty in addition to often being left behind in the development process, not least due to being extreme representatives of the economic situation of Vietnam's rural population.
Ethnic minority households have a tenuous economic position - and it is deteriorating.
While in 2002 the ethnic minority population living in rural areas was below 15% in 2002, it rose to over 18% in 2014 - both due to higher fertility among minorities and ethnic majority Kinh urbanizing at a higher rate - and the ratio of Kinh to minority incomes rose to more than 2.0 in 2014 [@Benjamin2017].
The same study finds that income inequality rose even more sharply *within* ethnic minorities, while that of rural Kinh, though increasing from 2002 to 2014, fell back to 2002 levels around 2014.
These findings suggest that the primary drivers of rural income inequality are a growing gap between Kinh and minorities while at the same time a similar rising inequality develops among minority rural populations themselves.
<!-- TODO Find levels of population rural/urban in other sources -->
In the same vein as the urban-rural divide, one can argue for structural policy failures which essentially lowered the returns on ethnicity along sectorial dividing lines of education and primary income types [@Nguyen2007].
<!-- structures of income -->
<!-- health inequality -->
<!-- restructuring -->
<!-- environmental inequality -->
<!-- climate change exacerbations -->