afd-development-contexts/notes/djibouti/2208161707_djibouti-ethiopia-key-notes.md

# Research Ethiopia

* focus on:
    * income inequality, based on bottom 40%, Gini coefficient, other inequality measures
    * inequality in policy areas of development interventions:
        * Djibouti unequal distribution of benefits from trade
    * project focus:
        * The objective of the project is to streamline trade between Ethiopia and Djibouti (components1 and 2) and to enable businesses  and producers, as well as the most vulnerable populations, to benefit from these improvements  (components 3 and 4).
        * Component 4 is dedicated to supporting the most vulnerable populations: small traders at  borders, women operating in export sectors.

## Project

The project in Djibouti and Ethiopia focuses on facilitating trade between Ethiopia and Djibouti through four components. Our study focuses on the fourth component, which targets vulnerable groups, notably women in Djibouti (where women unemployment reaches 50% rates), building their capacities to take advantage of the new opportunities arising from the development of the Djibouti-Ethiopia corridor.

## Literature

vandeVen2021 (Uganda) analyzes living incomes (similar to living wages) for Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia as well

### [x] WorldBank2022c - Macro Poverty outlook

* GDP growing by >6% on avg pre-Covid
    * driven by externally financed large-scale investment in transport and port infrastructure
    * country's strategic location and deep-water port -> regional refueling, trade and transport shipment center
* "rising debt service cost of fast-maturing debts has crowded out" social spending which country urgently needs
    * health 5% and social expenditures 3% of government's budget
    * compare with >30% on public infrastructure
* pandemic and Ethiopia conflict heavy toll on economy & fiscal accounts
    * external & public debt assessed as unsustainable since Feb 2022
* heavy reliance on food, energy imports -> key vulnerability
    * immediate impact of global commodity price shocks
    * Ukraine-Russia conflict could further expose food/energy fragility
* poverty:
    * 2017 (latest data):
        * 39% of pop below LMIC poverty line (3.2USD 2011PPP)
        * 17% in extreme poverty (<1.9USD 2011PPP)
    * one of most unequal countries in MENA region, Gini coeff 41.6 (2017)
    * poor data availability, hinders ability to plan

### [x] WorldBank2022d - Gender landscape

* 41% women (15-49) in positions of vulnerable employment (2019)
* education:
    * no data on learning-adjusted years of schooling
    * lower secondary completion rate:
        * male: 35.2 (2009), 54.0 (2021); cmp LMC (76.9)
        * female: 28.6 (2009), 56.3 (2021); cmp LMC (74.3)
* labor:
    * labor force participation rate:
        * m: 47.5 (2010), 44.1 (2021)
        * f: 16.9 (2010), 17.2 (2021)
    * wage/salaried employment %:
        * m: 64.0 (2010), 70.4 (2021)
        * f: 53.1 (2010), 58.1 (2021)
    * agricultural employment %:
        * m: 33.8 (2010), 26.1 (2021)
        * f: 31.2 (2010), 22.1 (2021)
    * firms:
        * firms w/ f participation in ownership (% of firms): 22.3 (2013)
        * firms w/ f top manager (% of firms): 14.2 (2013)

### [x] Emara2020 - financial inclusion and extreme poverty MENA

* looks at impact of financial inclusion on extreme poverty
* results:
    * Djibouti way above tareted poverty levels (SDG goals):
        * poverty head count ratio: 22.5% of pop
    * Djibouti (and Yemen) only MENA coutnries not even achieving most flexible poverty target of 5% yet
        * Djibouti not even on track to close gap to 5% target by 2030 solely through improvements in financial inclusion (only MENA country)
        * but also on track to miss all other poverty targets (3%,1.5%,0%) - only countries to not be on track to achieve 3% (Dji&Yemen)
    * data 1990-2017, however, latest data Djibouti from 2013

### [x] Nosier2018 - indirect democracy effects MENA

* facts:
    * Djibouti sorted under electoral autocracy
    * Djibouti LMIC - one of poorest countries in region (with Syria,Yemen,Sudan)

### [x] ElKhamlichi2022 - COVID results for LMIC MENA countries

* looks at infection, fatality, recovery, positivity rates for Covid in 7 countries
* results
    * Djibouti among highest infection rates (possibly related to high poverty and young population)
    * Djibouti one of highest fatality rate (possibly due to deficiencies in healthcare system)
    * also Djibouti highest recovery rate (possibly due to overall young population)

### [x] Brass2008 - resource curse

* looks at effects of Djibouti's non-tangible resources
* results:
    * non-tangible resources: geo-strategic location, aid-inspiring poverty
        * resource curse can arrive from non-traditional sources
        * military rent, bilateral aid, Djibouti's port (as monopolisable resource)
        * not necessarily extractable natural resources but dependence on government-controlled, alienable assets generating rent
        * dividends accrue to the state (similar to oil/natural gas which are unable to be exploited by Djibouti gov due to massive capital investment required)
    * leaders' policy decisions matter at least as much as presence/absence of resources
        * either government neglects economic diversification; or pursues intentional near-complete control of over economy (and thus, people)
        * increases people's dependence on government, allows spreading wealth to key constituencies
        * stuck in authoritarian catch22: diversifying economy, developing country requires educating citizenry, educated citizens before diversifying economy would likely result in successful opposition
    * advanced countries' spending patterns in less-developed allies often produce unintended consequences

### [x] Ibarra2020 - Welfare between urban rural poor

* unprecedented economic growth of 35% (2013-2016), highly urbanized country
    * 76% of pop resides in Djibouti city, 9% in other urban areas, 15% rural
* based on national poverty line (2.18USD 2011PPP; 2017 data):
    * extreme poverty rate Djibouti city 13.6%, rural areas 62.6%
    * 15% of pop rural; 45% of country's poor are in rural areas
    * 37% of country's poor in Balbala area (districts 4&5 of 5 in Djibouti city)
* rural poverty relative to population location much higher:
    * requires strategy investing in infrastructure and service provision and better connection to cities
* poor rural households highly deprived, highest dependency ratios, lowest participation in labor force, HHHs very low levels of employment, very low school enrollment
    * urban poo in Balbala similar to rural poor, avg consumption per capita much lower than in rural areas
* rural poor bad access to public services: 41% have access to improved water source, 10% access to sanitation, 3% access to electricity
    * >~1/3rd close (<1km) to elementary school; 10% less than 1km to health facility
    * urban poor (in capital) have better coverage rates there; more likely to send children to school
* series of recent droughts threatens livelihoods of nomadic, pastoralist populace - many fled to neighboring countries, some became sedentary in village/city outskirts
    * poverty much higher than national rate, esp vulnerable group

### [x] Mendiratta2019 - distribution of growth benefits

EDAM4-IS (2017) dataset by Directorate of Statistics and Demographic Studies (DISED)

* efforts to invest in human capital - increase school access:
    * number of public primary schools 84 (04/05), 113 (10/11), 136 (16/17)
    * reflects in higher literacy rates in younger (10-14/15-24 years) cohorts compared to older
        * benefitted boys/girls, slowly closing gender literacy gap (for those born roughly from mid-50s to mid-1970s) (??)
        * 24% diff (40-60yrs old), 10% (15-24yrs), 2% (10-14yrs)
    * however, gender disparities remain evident as women still more likely to have no formal education and only 38% to have completed primary ed (57% for men); overall literacy rates 49% women, 66% men
* upward educational mobility:
    * of >25yrs compared to their fathers: ntl. avg 36%, non-poor men 53%, non-poor women 29%, poor men 19%, poor women 10%
* ~70% of all Djibouti port trade comes from landlocked neighbor Ethiopia
    * increasingly closely tied to Eth's economy
* past growth (driven by capital intensive investments) likely not conducive of inclusive growth path
    * large-scale infrastructure and logistics investments more likely to create demand for skilled workers
* decrease of *nearly three quarters* of nomadic population between 2009-2017
* poverty (national pov line):
    * consumption rate per adult, extreme poverty rate for country ~21.1% (2017)
    * overall: 35.8% poverty in country, in rural 78.4% in poverty, in djibouti city 28.2% in poverty
* labor market:
    * over half of working-age population not in labor force:
        * ~45% (2017); ~46.3% (1996) despite economic growth
        * labor force participation: men's 59%, women's 32%
        * <33% aged 15-24, 55% (25-39), 53 (40-60)
        * high rates of unemployment: 2/3rds of women, 1/3rd of men
    * public sector draws highly skilled individuals, rest is private informal (together make up 90% of LM)
        * formal LM opportunities less available for working women than working men
        * 63% of working women in informal private sector, 1/3rd in public administration
    * working in informal sector predominantly one-person 'self-employed' numbers even higher for women (90% of informal jobs for women)
* inequality:
    * among highest in world, richest decile enjoys 32% of total consumption, >16 times level of 1st percentile consumption (1.9% of total consumption)