Prepare first draft of Uganda drivers

notes/uganda/2208171139_literature-education.md

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-### [ ] Cali2014 - trade increase and wage inequality
+### [x] Cali2014 - trade increase and wage inequality
 
 results:
 * analyzes district-level disaggregation of exposure to trade boom in 1990s to find districts that were more exposed had 2.8% lower wage premiums relative to less-exposed districts
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ results:
 * intensification of *domestic* trade and increase in average education were associated with increased wage premiums
 * thus, less additional inequality due to opening trade markets, but more due to increased domestic trade and increasing education differences
 
-### [ ] Datzberger2018 - education does not reach poor
+### [x] Datzberger2018 - education does not reach poor
 
 * looks at education sector through opposition of assimilative/transformative approaches:
     * Uganda education sector focuses strongly on assimilation-based agenda:
@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ results:
     * assimilative approach = mainstream approach of human capital building at individual level
     * transformative approach = deeper change of oppressive structures to liberate individuals toward self-expression (political, social, etc)
 
-### [ ] WorldBank2022 - Learning poverty measure
+### [x] WorldBank2022 - Learning poverty measure
 
 * looks at Learning Poverty Indicator formed of 'Schooling Deprived' (out-of-school) children and 'Learning Deprived' (below minimum proficiency) children
 * results:

notes/uganda/22081824_script.md

@@ -25,16 +25,27 @@ header-includes:
 
 # Script
 
+Summary:
+
+-----
+* Poverty and inequality in Uganda are at a fluctuating level in Uganda, with relative poverty staying roughly stable and inequality slowly trending upward.
+* National poverty line set very low, potentially hiding additional households in states of deprivation and those in danger of reverting to poverty.
+* Inequality, poverty and informal economy in close circular relation in Uganda, presenting a vicious circle for those captive within.
+* Education levels of poor people are consistently low, with those of rural population more so.
+* Inadequate access to clean water can exacerbate these inequalities, directly influencing food security, rural child education and gender inequalities.
+* The district of Isingiro especially is dramatically below national average of clean water access, and in danger of exacerbation through climate change.
+-----
+
 <!-- intro/overall -->
-Uganda generally has a degree of inequality that fluctuates somewhat but over time seems largely unchanged,
+Uganda generally has a degree of inequality that fluctuates but over time seems largely unchanged,
 as does the share of people below its poverty line in recent years.
 The overall level of welfare inequality in the country had a slight upward trend,
 with a Gini coefficient of 0.36 calculated for the 1992/93 census and a World Bank calculation of 0.43 for the year 2019,
 with the coefficient rising significantly in the years 2002/03 and 2009/10 during its fluctuation [@Lwanga-Ntale2014; @Atamanov2022].
 However, the overall aggregation masks several important distinctions:
-Rural inequality on the whole is lower than urban inequality, with Lwanga-Ntale [@Lwanga-Ntale2014] findings coefficients of 0.35 and 0.41 for 2012/13 respectively.
+Rural inequality on the whole is lower than urban inequality, with Lwanga-Ntale [@Lwanga-Ntale2014] finding coefficients of 0.35 and 0.41 for 2012/13 respectively.
 Additionally, he sees quintile inequalities primarily driven by the highest quintile (0.25) with the middle-incomes less affected (0.05-0.07),
-however he also finds a significantly higher coefficient for the first quintile (0.14).
+also finding a significantly higher coefficient for the first quintile (0.14), however.
 These inequality levels remain mostly unchanged from 2012/13 to 2019/20 but hide qualitative dimensions such as the shift out of a lower-income agricultural livelihood predominantly taking place amongst older men who have at least some level of formal education and are from already more well-off households [@Atamanov2022].
 
 <!-- poverty -->
@@ -58,15 +69,21 @@ inequality increases the size of the informal economy, as a large subsistence se
 undermines the governments efforts to attain equitable income distributions in the economy and the creation of social safety nets for the poort, who, in turn,
 have to turn to the informal economy to secure their livelihoods,
 increasing its size both short- and long-term and feeding back into the cycle.
+Cali [-@Cali2014] finds that, already, one of the primary determinants of income disparity in more trade-exposed markets of Uganda in the 1990s were the increasing education differences leading to more disparate wage premiums.
 Additionally, slow structural change ---
 further impeded by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which pushed both urban and rural residents back into poverty ---
 leaves a low-productivity agricultural sector which becomes,
 in combination with a lack of education, the strongest predictor of poverty:
 the poverty rate in households with an uneducated household head (17% of all households) is 48% (2019/20),
 while already households with a household head possessing primary education (also 17% of all) nearly cuts this in half with 25% poverty rate (2019/20) [@Atamanov2022].
+The World Bank [-@WorldBank2022] calculated a Learning Poverty Indicator for Uganda which finds that 82% of children at late primary age are not proficient in reading, 81% of children do not achieve minimum proficiency level in reading at the end of primary schooling, and 4% of primary school-aged children are not enrolled in school at all.
+Datzberger [-@Datzberger2018] argues these problems primarily exist in Uganda due to choosing an approach to education that is primarily assimilation-based, that is, intended to effect change at the individual-level through fostering grassroots education throughout society at large,
+instead of looking into more transformative policy approaches which would operate on a more systemic level,
+removing oppressive structures of inequality in tandem with government institutions at multiple levels.
 
 <!-- water access -->
-<!-- TODO introductionary sentence like With Uganda being situated here-and-there it is one of the countries in danger of water scarcity, which would be bad because. -->
+Such personal circumstances as access to a timely education play decisive role in life and human capital development ---
+circumstances to which decent housing as well as access to clean water are equally fundamental building blocks [@Atamanov2022].
 In 1990 a policy initiative to shift from a supply-driven to a demand-driven model for rural drinking water provision was enacted which, over time,
 improved rural safe water coverage slightly but also made operation and maintenance of improved water sources pose a challenge that could impede long-term access to safe water.
 In the country, access to improved water sources rose from 44% in 1990 to 60% in 2004 and 66% in 2010 [@Naiga2015].
@@ -93,7 +110,7 @@ with fetching water traditionally being a female care role, the cost of user fee
 <!-- water access during extreme events -->
 Looking into the effects of climate change and its accompanying increase in climate shock events, especially droughts, on such gender roles,
 Nagasha et al. [-Nagasha2019] find that it gender roles adapt while gender inequalities tend to increase,
-with men participating more in firewood collection but generally focusing on assuming a single reproductive role while women played multiple roles simultaneously.
+with men participating more in firewood collection and water fetching but generally focused on assuming a single reproductive role while women played multiple roles simultaneously.
 Two effects they found of this exacerbation were the women often being forced to engage their children in work activities to manage the simultaneous workload, and women, due to their exclusion from landownership in the region, being brought further into a state of dependence and thus made even more vulnerable to future climate change effects.
 Water supply use seems to experience little change during emergency situations, and people's willingness (or ability) to pay for water is also too small to maintain water revenue without addressing the disparity in socio-economic attributes of households [@Sempewo2021; @Sempewo2021a].
 Taken together, this hints at one possibility of subsequent health disparity increases due to prior income inequalities and poverty during emergency situations such as climate shocks.
@@ -111,6 +128,16 @@ Yikii et al. [-@Yikii2017], looking at the prevalence and determining factors of
 which they argue would worsen in droughts unless the government finds ways of promoting food and nutrition education, alternative income generating activities, drought resistant crop varieties and ways of water conservation.
 
 <!-- conclusion -->
+Thus, while Uganda's poverty and inequality are trending towards drastically worsening over the last years,
+hidden disparities bring its issues in focus once disaggregated:
+Nationally, poverty is a looming transient affair for many households, more if increasing the country's very low national line of poverty.
+Inequality derives itself partly from this poverty, making it necessary for many to accept informal work which, taken at large, in turn fosters further national inequality.
+The role education plays in Uganda's allocation of poverty cannot be overstated, with especially many rural children not having adequate opportunity to access timely education.
+This disparity could be exacerbated by poor quality access to clean water through improved water sources,
+which in turn worsens food securities, retrenches gender role inequalities and precludes more children from their education.
+In the district of Isingiro in West Uganda access to water is considerably below the national average,
+with policy failures during implementation now leading to partly or non-functional water sources.
+The problem runs danger of deteriorating with an increased amount of climate shocks such as droughts threatening to exacerbate existing inequalities and drive further households into poverty.
 
 \pagebreak
 ## References