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@ -109,6 +109,7 @@ or there was some kind of issue on the backend so the stats for those days are
lost.
<!-- TODO: is this still true? -->
We take a look at the missing days
among other things at the end of this article.
@ -161,7 +162,8 @@ something happened to data collection or everybody collectively decided to
leave their PC offline just for that day, but the numbers are back to normal
the day after.[^independence-day]
[^independence-day]: I suppose one interpretation would be people taking their
[^independence-day]:
I suppose one interpretation would be people taking their
4th of July celebrations very seriously, and thus not being present in the
statistics for the day after. However, I am not sure if this would reflect so
strongly in data collection, and it additionally pre-supposes the data
@ -209,9 +211,14 @@ may signify new users checking out Void Linux and downloading a large variety
of packages in the process.
<!-- TODO: still accurate? -->
For a breakdown of the absolute numbers of packages on systems by weekday and
month of the year instead of over time, see the Appendix below.
An interesting trend is visible toward the end of the timeline window, with a
rapid decline in package numbers per user. It is too early for to clearly see
if this is just variability or an actual trend in the data.
Beyond pure installation numbers, let's take a look at the actual top-installed
packages on users' systems.
@ -226,7 +233,8 @@ The top packages are unsurprisingly
the `base-system` and `xtools` packages, followed by `wget`, `htop` and
`rsync`.[^popcorn-removal]
[^popcorn-removal]: I have removed the PopCorn package itself from the data.
[^popcorn-removal]:
I have removed the PopCorn package itself from the data.
Funnily enough, since _everybody_ who is represented in the data has to have
PopCorn installed or the data wouldn't be collected in the first place, if we
extrapolate from the collected data naively this means more people have PopCorn
@ -278,7 +286,8 @@ On the Y-axis we see the amount of packages while on the X-axis we see the amoun
What this means is that we see _how often_ packages tend to be installed,
and where the majority of packages is grouped.[^density-approximation]
[^density-approximation]: In the package density count above, since we are
[^density-approximation]:
In the package density count above, since we are
accumulating over the absolute numbers of all installations of all users, the
overall high numbers are really _high_, i.e. above 150,000. Since we are
sorting the package counts into a finite number of bins to make visualizing it
@ -318,21 +327,72 @@ packages between eleven and 20 installations, and
`python f"{get_num(twenty_thirty):,}"` packages between 21 and 30 installations.
`python f"{get_num(thirty_plus):,}"` packages have over 30 installations.
For now, these are the explorations I have done for the package data collected.
I think it is interesting to see, especially the evolution of package installations over time,
and per user,
as well as getting a glimpse of the most used packages in the sample.
But there are yet more things to explore in the statistics overall.
## Kernel Analysis
Beyond package numbers, the data also encapsulate information about the Linux
kernels used by Void Linux users.
The files report the exact kernel version users are running, including the major version,
minor versions, and any suffixes as well.
For example, there are many reports containing the `4.19.0-9-amd64` kernel, or
some containing the `6.1.53-1-lts` kernel, or `6.11.2-asahi-6.11.2-1_4`. These
are 'extraordinary' kernels in my opinion, and they do not follow clear naming
patterns. For the purposes of the following visualizations any such suffixes
have been cut off, looking only at the versioning of the main kernels
themselves.
Let's start by looking at the prevalence of the different major versions.
```{python}
from notebooks.popcorn import plt_kernel_versions
pplot(plt_kernel_versions)
```
When looking at the kernel versions used, we see a very strong jump between major kernel version
4 and major kernel version 5.
This is an accumulation of the three major versions used during the collected timeline,
over the _whole_ time as absolute numbers.
For this analysis we had to exclude {kernel_df_v99.select(pl.len()).item()} rows which were
apparently from the future, as they were running variations of major kernel version 99. In all
likelihood there is a custom kernel version out there which reports its own major version as 99.
The strange version starts appearing on {kernel_df_v99.select("date").row(0)0} and shows up
all the way until {kernel_df_v99.select("date").row(-1)[0]}.
When looking at the kernel versions used, we see a very strong jump between major kernel version
4 and major kernel version 5, with version 4 being significantly less prevalent in the data.
Of course, this makes sense from a release standpoint: kernel version 5.0 was
released in March 2019, just a single year after the start of data collection.[^kernel-releases]
Additionally, as we established above, this was also the time of the fewest
unique data reports, so the absolute amount of kernel 4 reports is even
smaller.
[^kernel-releases]:
Data collection began in May 2018.
All information on the kernel release timelines is taken
from the nicely comprehensive _Linux Kernel Version History_ Wikipedia page:
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linux_kernel_version_history>.
Kernel version 5 still provides the dominant amount of reported kernel versions,
but just barely. This makes sense since major version 6.0 was released in October 2022.
It has thus been just over three years of version 5 being the latest kernel,
and almost exactly three years of version 6 being the latest kernel.
Again, we have to keep the curve of unique installations in mind for absolute numbers like these:
Kernel 5 was released right as the massive increase in unique Void Linux installation reports happened,
and kernel 6 right after the report slump happened.
This, in all likelihood, accounts for the slight imbalance between the numbers,
and will shift over the coming months.
Just like with kernel suffixes, for this analysis we also had to exclude
{kernel_df_v99.select(pl.len()).item()} rows which were apparently from the
future --- as they were running variations of major kernel version 99. In all
likelihood there is a custom compiled kernel version out there which reports its own
major version as 99. The strange version starts appearing on
{kernel_df_v99.select("date").row(0)0} and shows up all the way until
{kernel_df_v99.select("date").row(-1)[0]}.
Let's turn to the actual adoption of kernels over time in the next visualization.
```{python}
from notebooks.popcorn import plt_kernel_timeline
@ -356,16 +416,31 @@ last_kernel5: date = weekly_kernel_df.filter(pl.col("major_ver") == "5")[-1][
].item()
```
A timeline analysis of the kernels used to report daily downloads shows that people generally
adopt new major kernel versons at roughly the same time. This change is especially stark between
major kernel versions 5 and 6, which seem to have traded place in usage almost over night.
A timeline analysis of the prevalent kernels in the data shows that new major
kernel version are adopted relatively rapidly and with the majority of switches
occuring at roughly the same time.
The first time that major version 5 of the kernel shows up is on {first_kernel5}. From here, it
took a long time for the last of the version 4 kernels to disappear, coinciding with the big
switch between major version 5 and 6. The last time a major version 4 is seen is on
{last_kernel4}, while the last major version 5 kernels still pop up.
It would seem, then, that the people still running kernel version 4 used the opportunity of
everybody switching to the stable version of 6 to also upgrade their machines.
This change is especially stark between major kernel versions 5 and 6, which
seem to have traded place in usage almost over night. A reasonable speculation
for this rapid switch is that the `linux` kernel meta-package was pointed at
the new version at that time, so each update pulled the new kernel.
The first time that major version 5 of the kernel shows up is on
{first_kernel5}. From here, it took a long time for the last of the version 4
kernels to disappear. Interestingly, this roughly coincides with the big switch
between major version 5 and 6. The last time a major version 4 is seen is on
{last_kernel4}, while the last major version 5 kernels still pop up. It would
seem, then, that the people still running kernel version 4 used the opportunity
of everybody switching to the stable version of 6 to also upgrade their
machines.
If we cautiously extrapolate a little from the data we have, it would seem
reasonable that the last remnants of kernel version 5 may be disappearing
around May or June 2026. A lot of course depends on the upstream kernel release
windows and the stability of the releases themselves. But barring any major
upheavals in the kernel releases (of a magnitude like the removal of
[bcachefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bcachefs)) or major stability issues,
this seems a reasonable assumption to me.
## Appendix: Odds and Ends