datasci/analysis-voidlinux-popcorn
1
0
Fork 0
Code Issues Pull requests Projects Releases Packages Wiki Activity Actions

Overhaul text

Browse source
This commit is contained in:
Marty Oehme 2025-10-08 21:49:29 +02:00
parent 77a3a65c4e
commit 2394bb3ca9
Signed by: Marty
GPG key ID: 4E535BC19C61886E
1 changed files with 61 additions and 29 deletions
Download patch file Download diff file Expand all files Collapse all files

90
popcorn.qmd
View file

@ -130,37 +130,50 @@ up again, if at a more mellow pace.
Now that we have an idea of how the overall reported sizes in the distribution Now that we have an idea of how the overall reported sizes in the distribution
have changed over time, let's focus on the actual package statistics. have changed over time, let's focus on the actual package statistics.
The popcorn files contain two main pieces of information: the number of The popcorn files contain two pieces of information we're interested in: the
installs per package (e.g. how many people have `rsync` installed) and the number of installs per package (e.g. how many people have `rsync` installed)
number of unique installs (i.e. how many people provide their statistics). We and the number of unique installs (i.e. how many people provide their
will look at both of these in turn. statistics). We will look at both of these in turn.
```{python} ```{python}
from notebooks.popcorn import plt_weekly_packages from notebooks.popcorn import plt_weekly_packages
pplot(plt_weekly_packages) pplot(plt_weekly_packages)
``` ```
The number of packages overall strongly rises until early 2021, The number of packages installed overall strongly rises until early 2021, when
when it stagnates a little before rising more slowly again afterwards. it stagnates a little before rising more slowly again afterwards. The pattern
The pattern strongly mirrors the curve we saw before for the daily filesize. strongly mirrors the curve we saw before for the daily filesize. There is a
curious dip visible in the data in early 2021 which seems to say fewer packages
were installed during most of 2022 compared to 2021.
Turning to the daily unique uploads, we can see a similar pattern, though even The graph above traces the _absolute_ number of package installations for each
more strongly pronounced. week during the data collection period. That means, a simple sum of the number
of all currently installed packages for each day.
So to figure out one possible reason for the dip, let's turn to the daily
unique uploads, in we can see a similar pattern, though even more strongly
pronounced.
```{python} ```{python}
from notebooks.popcorn import plt_unique_installs from notebooks.popcorn import plt_unique_installs
pplot(plt_unique_installs) pplot(plt_unique_installs)
``` ```
Unique installations rise sharply until early 2020. Then they not just stagnate This graphs similarly shows the _absolute_ number, this time of unique Void
but shrink for the next three years. It is only early 2023 when the numbers Linux installations counted for each day. Of course, these are only the
recover and begin rising again slowly. _reported_ installations (since we don't know about unreported), as can be seen
in the overall small number of between 100 and 120 installations.
We also have one day on 05 July 2024 which has significantly fewer unique Unique installations rise sharply until early 2020. Then they not just stagnate
uploads (36 only) than all the other days around it. I have no clue if but shrink for the next three years. It is only from early 2023 onwards when
something happened to data collection or everybody collectively decided to the numbers recover and begin rising again slowly.
leave their PC offline just for that day, but the numbers are back to normal
the day after.[^independence-day] We also have one day on 05 July 2024 which has _significantly_ fewer unique
uploads (36 only) than all the other days around it. It reflects in the graph
as a single week dipping down in 2024, but would be look more egregious on a
daily accumulation. I have no clue if something happened to data collection or
everybody collectively decided to leave their PC offline just for that day, but
the numbers are back to normal the day after.[^independence-day]
[^independence-day]: [^independence-day]:
I suppose one interpretation would be people taking their I suppose one interpretation would be people taking their
@ -176,17 +189,23 @@ statistics the absolute number of package installations will be somewhat
reduced as a result, unless for some reason the remaining people all of a reduced as a result, unless for some reason the remaining people all of a
sudden start having many more packages installed. sudden start having many more packages installed.
Let's check that out next, by actually looking at the installed packages _per So this could be one reason for the dip in reported package ownership. The
user_ for each day. decrease in daily reports maps relatively cleanly onto the dip in absolute
packages, and makes sense from a conceptual standpoint: fewer reports mean
fewer overall reported packages.
Next, let's verify that hunch by actually looking at the installed packages
_per user_ for each day.
```{python} ```{python}
from notebooks.popcorn import plt_pkg_relative from notebooks.popcorn import plt_pkg_relative
pplot(plt_pkg_relative) pplot(plt_pkg_relative)
``` ```
Combining both stats to look at the installed packages at a more individual Combining both previous stats to look at the installed packages at a more
level per user, we see this confirmed. There is no similarly strong dip for the individual level per user, I think we see our hunch confirmed. There is no
relative package ownership as there was for the absolute package numbers. similarly strong dip for the relative package ownership as there was for the
absolute package numbers.
Indeed, with the exception of a small more rapid increase in individual package Indeed, with the exception of a small more rapid increase in individual package
ownership in 2019, we see a much more stable increase in per-user packages than ownership in 2019, we see a much more stable increase in per-user packages than
@ -210,17 +229,30 @@ couple users having a much larger package ownership than everybody else. This
may signify new users checking out Void Linux and downloading a large variety may signify new users checking out Void Linux and downloading a large variety
of packages in the process. of packages in the process.
<!-- TODO: still accurate? --> Perhaps a similar pattern is visible in the higher number of packages per user
in 2019. With even fewer unique daily reports (between 20 and 60 for the year),
single users' package count differences reflect much more drastically on this
graph. So, one possibility for the rapid decrease followed by a more linear
increase is the 'balancing' of package ownerships across the (wider) reported
community.
For a breakdown of the absolute numbers of packages on systems by weekday and Want to know how many packages you currently have installed? Find out with a
month of the year instead of over time, see the Appendix below. quick `xbps-query -m | wc -l` to count all your explicitly installed packages.
I currently have 234, so I'm below average for this cohort (indeed, I am much
more of an average 2021 Void Linux kid, it appears).
<!-- TODO: still accurate? -->
For an additional breakdown of the absolute numbers of packages on systems by
weekday and month of the year instead of over time, have a look at the Appendix
below.
An interesting trend is visible toward the end of the timeline window, with a An interesting trend is visible toward the end of the timeline window, with a
rapid decline in package numbers per user. It is too early for to clearly see rapid decline in package numbers per user starting in early 2025. It is too
if this is just variability or an actual trend in the data. early for to clearly see if this is just variability or an actual trend in the
data, but it is very interesting to see.
Beyond pure installation numbers, let's take a look at the actual top-installed Beyond pure installation numbers, let's also take a look at the actual
packages on users' systems. packages which take the top-installed spots on users' systems.
<!-- TODO: perhaps the pre-made ISOs play a role, especially Feb2024? no hang on feb 2025 --> <!-- TODO: perhaps the pre-made ISOs play a role, especially Feb2024? no hang on feb 2025 -->