author: Liyanaarachchi, T. S., Naranpanawa, A., & Bandara, J. S. year: 2016 title: "Impact of trade liberalisation on labour market and poverty in Sri Lanka. An integrated macro-micro modelling approach" publisher: Economic Modelling uri: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.07.008 pubtype: article discipline: economy country: Sri Lanka period: 2009-2010 maxlength: 12 targeting: implicit group: workers data: national administrative Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) design: simulation method: macro-micro computable general equilibrium model sample: 19958 unit: household representativeness: national causal: 1 # 0 correlation / 1 causal theory: limitations: static model not able to account for transition paths; no disaggregated sectoral input-output data available observation: - intervention: trade liberalization institutional: 1 structural: 1 agency: 0 inequality: income type: 0 # 0 vertical / 1 horizontal indicator: 1 # 0 absolute / 1 relative measures: Atkinson index; S-Gini index; Atkinson-Gini index; Entropy index findings: reduced absolute poverty for tariff elimination only, mixed results but reduction for tariff elim and fiscal policy changes together; income inequality increases in long-run in all sectors channels: increased wage differences (esp for manager, professionals, technicians and urban workers); low-income households more dependent on private/gov transfers which do not increase with trade liberalization direction: 1 # -1 neg / 0 none / 1 pos significance: 2 # 0 nsg / 1 msg / 2 sg notes: annotation: | A simulation model on the effects of trade liberalization in Sri Lanka on income inequality and absolute poverty. It finds that the complete elimination of tariffs results in an overall reduction in absolute poverty, while tariff elimination with resulting fiscal policy responses to balance the budget would result in more mixed results but still pointing to an absolute reduction in poverty. On the other hand, income inequality is seen to increase for most sectors over the short term and for all sectors over the long term. The primary channels for this change are increased wage differences --- especially the increased wages for managers, professionals and technicians, as well as increased differences between urban workers --- and low-income households being more dependent on private or government transfers, which do not increase with trade liberalization.