abstract: 'Achieving the international 2 degrees C limit climate policy requires

  stringent reductions in GHG emissions by mid-century, with some

  countries simultaneously facing development-related challenges. South

  Africa is a middle-income developing country with high rates of

  unemployment and high levels of poverty, as well as an

  emissions-intensive economy. South Africa takes into account an

  assessment of what a fair contribution to reducing global emissions

  might be, and is committed to a `peak, plateau and decline'' emissions

  trajectory with absolute emissions specified for 2025 and 2030, while

  noting the need to address development imperatives. This work utilizes

  an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model (e-SAGE) linked to

  an energy-system optimization model (TIMES) to explore improving

  development metrics within a 14 GtCO(2)e cumulative energy sector carbon

  constraint through to 2050 for South Africa. The electricity sector

  decarbonizes by retiring coal-fired power plants or replacing with

  concentrated solar power, solar photovoltaics and wind generation.

  Industry and tertiary-sector growth remains strong throughout the time

  period, with reduced energy intensity via fuel-switching and efficiency

  improvements. From 2010 to 2050, the model results in the unemployment

  rate decreasing from 25\% to 12\%, and the percentage of people living

  below the poverty line decreasing from 49\% to 18\%. Total energy GHG

  emissions were reduced by 39\% and per capita emissions decreased by

  62\%.

  Policy relevance

  Lower poverty and inequality are goals that cannot be subordinated to

  lower GHG emissions. Policy documents in South Africa outline objectives

  such as reducing poverty and inequality with a key focus on education

  and employment. In its climate policy and Intended Nationally Determined

  Contribution (INDC), South Africa is committed to a peak, plateau and

  decline GHG emissions trajectory. As in many developing countries, these

  policy goals require major transformations in the energy system while

  simultaneously increasing affordable access to safe and convenient

  energy services for those living in energy poverty. The modelled

  scenario in this work focuses on employment and poverty reduction under

  a carbon constraint, a novel combination with results that can provide

  information for a holistic climate and development policy framework.

  This study has focused on the long term, which is important in

  generating clear policy signals for the necessary large-scale

  investments.'
affiliation: 'Altieri, KE (Corresponding Author), Univ Cape Town, Energy Res Ctr,
  Private Bag X3, ZA-7701 Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa.

  Altieri, Katye E.; Trollip, Hilton; Caetano, Tara; Hughes, Alison; Merven, Bruno;
  Winkler, Harald, Univ Cape Town, Energy Res Ctr, Private Bag X3, ZA-7701 Cape Town,
  Western Cape, South Africa.'
author: Altieri, Katye E. and Trollip, Hilton and Caetano, Tara and Hughes, Alison
  and Merven, Bruno and Winkler, Harald
author-email: katye.altieri@uct.ac.za
author_list:
- family: Altieri
  given: Katye E.
- family: Trollip
  given: Hilton
- family: Caetano
  given: Tara
- family: Hughes
  given: Alison
- family: Merven
  given: Bruno
- family: Winkler
  given: Harald
da: '2023-09-28'
doi: 10.1080/14693062.2016.1150250
eissn: 1752-7457
files: []
issn: 1469-3062
journal: CLIMATE POLICY
keywords: 'development pathways; economic models; employment; energy models; GHG

  reductions; mitigation scenarios'
language: English
number: 1, SI
number-of-cited-references: '42'
orcid-numbers: 'Altieri, Katye/0000-0002-6778-4079

  Winkler, Harald/0000-0002-5826-4071

  Trollip, Hilton/0000-0002-2591-8139'
pages: S78-S91
papis_id: cad49281a47a315f5e0efdc2e5b03306
ref: Altieri2016achievingdevelopment
researcherid-numbers: 'Altieri, Katye/GWV-4512-2022

  Winkler, Harald/AAF-6226-2020

  '
times-cited: '30'
title: Achieving development and mitigation objectives through a decarbonization development
  pathway in South Africa
type: article
unique-id: WOS:000445036800006
usage-count-last-180-days: '3'
usage-count-since-2013: '18'
volume: '16'
web-of-science-categories: Environmental Studies; Public Administration
year: '2016'