cite: Cieplinski2021
author: Cieplinski, A., D’Alessandro, S., Distefano, T., & Guarnieri, P.
year: 2021
title: "Coupling environmental transition and social prosperity: A scenario-analysis of the Italian case"
publisher: Structural Change and Economic Dynamics
uri: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2021.03.007
pubtype: article
discipline: economics

country: Italy
period: 2010-2014
maxlength:
targeting: implicit
group: workers
data: ISTAT national accounts 2010,2014; EU-KLEMS LM data

design: simulation
method: dynamic macrosimulation model
sample:
unit: individual
representativeness: national
causal: 1 # 0 correlation / 1 causal

theory:
limitations: models assumption of workers accepting lower income and consumption levels for work time reduction
observation:
  - intervention: regulation (working time reduction)
    institutional: 1
    structural: 1
    agency: 0
    inequality: income
    type: 0 # 0 vertical / 1 horizontal
    indicator: 1 # 0 absolute / 1 relative
    measures: Gini; employment rates
    findings: working time reduction policy significantly increases employment; significantly decreases income inequality
    channels: significantly decreases aggregate demand
    direction: -1 # -1 neg / 0 none / 1 pos
    significance: 1 # 0 nsg / 1 msg / 2 sg
  - intervention: ubi
    institutional: 1
    structural: 1
    agency: 0
    inequality: income
    type: 0 # 0 vertical / 1 horizontal
    indicator: 1 # 0 absolute / 1 relative
    measures: Gini
    findings: decreases income inequality; negative impact on environmental outcomes
    channels: sustains aggregate demand
    direction: -1 # -1 neg / 0 none / 1 pos
    significance: 2 # 0 nsg / 1 msg / 2 sg

notes:
annotation: |
  A simulation study on the income inequality effects of both a policy targeting a reduction in working time and the introduction of a universal basic income in Italy.
  It finds that while both decrease overall income inequality, measured through Gini coefficient, they do so through different channels.
  While provision of a universal basic income sustains aggregate demand, thereby spreading income in a more equitable manner,
  working time reductions significantly decrease aggregate demand through lower individual income but significantly increases labour force participation and thus employment.
  It also finds that through these channels of changing aggregate demand, the environmental outcomes are oppositional, with work time reduction decreasing and UBI increasing the overall ecological footprint.
  One limitation of the study is the modeling assumption that workers will have to accept both lower income and lower consumption levels under a policy of work time reduction through stable labour market entry for the results to hold.