author: Debowicz, D., & Golan, J
year: 2014
title: "The impact of Oportunidades on human capital and income distribution in Mexico: A top-down/bottom-up approach"
publisher: Journal of Policy Modeling
uri: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2013.10.014
discipline: economics

country: Mexico
period: 2008
maxlength:
targeting: explicit
group: poor
data: national administrative survey Encuesta Nacional de Ingresos y Gastos de los Hogares (ENIGH) 2008

design: quasi-experimental
method: general equilibrium model, microeconometric simulation model; using Gini coefficient
sample: 30000
unit: household
representativeness: national
causal: 1 # 0 correlation / 1 causal

theory: human capital theory
limitations: analytical household-level limitations; no indirect cost-effects able to be accounted for; static model
observation:
  - intervention: cash transfer (conditional)
    institutional: 0
    structural: 1
    agency: 0
    inequality: income; generational
    type: 0 # 0 vertical / 1 horizontal
    indicator: 1 # 0 absolute / 1 relative
    measures: income
    findings: raises average income of poorest households by 23%
    channels: cash influx; positive wage effect benefitting those who keep their children at work; direct benefit for human capital increase (school attendance), indirect benefit for increased scarcity of unskilled labor
    direction: 1
    significance: 2

notes: study attempts to explictly account for spillover effects
annotation: |
  A study looking at the impact of the cash transfer programme Oportunidades in Mexico, conditioned on a household's children school attendance, on income inequality among others.
  It finds that a combination of effects raises the average income of the poorest households by 23 percent.
  The authors argue in the short run this benefits households through the direct cash influx itself, as well as generating a positive wage effect benefitting those who keep their children at work.
  Additionally, over the long-term for the children in the model there is a direct benefit for those whose human capital is increased due to the programme, but also an indirect benefit for those who did not increase their human capital, because of the increased scarcity of unskilled labor as a secondary effect.
  Due to the relatively low cost of the programme if correctly targeted, it seems to have a significantly positive effect on the Mexican economy and its income equality.