abstract: 'Unemployment rates in countries across the world are strongly correlated

  with GDP. China is an unusual outlier from the pattern, whose official

  government statistics show abnormally low, and suspiciously stable,

  unemployment rates relative to its GDP. This paper reports estimates of

  China''s unemployment rate for its local urban Hukou population using a

  more reliable, nationally representative dataset for that population

  than in prior work, and which spans a longer period of history than in

  the past literature. The unemployment rates we calculate differ

  dramatically from those supplied in official data and are much more

  consistent with what is known about key historical developments in

  China''s labor market. The rate averaged 3.7\% in 1988-1995, when the

  labor market was highly regulated and dominated by state-owned

  enterprises, but rose sharply during the period of mass layoff from 1995

  to 2002, reaching an average of 9.5\% in the subperiod from 2002 to

  2009. The rates were even higher when demographic composition is held

  fixed. We can also calculate labor force participation rates, which are

  not available in official statistics at all. We find that they declined

  throughout the whole period, particularly in 1995-2002 when the

  unemployment rate increased most significantly. We also find that the

  impacts of these changes fell most heavily on the unskilled (women,

  those with less education, and younger individuals). Finally, estimates

  of unemployment and labor force participation rates are also provided

  for all urban residents, including migrants without local urban Hukou,

  and show the same patterns of change over time. (C) 2017 Association for

  Comparative Economic Studies. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

  reserved.'
affiliation: 'Feng, SZ (Corresponding Author), Jinan Univ, Inst Econ \& Social Res,
  601 Huangpu Ave West, Guangzhou 510632, Guangdong, Peoples R China.

  Feng, Shuaizhang, Jinan Univ, Inst Econ \& Social Res, 601 Huangpu Ave West, Guangzhou
  510632, Guangdong, Peoples R China.

  Hu, Yingyao; Moffitt, Robert, Johns Hopkins Univ, Dept Econ, Baltimore, MD 21218
  USA.

  Moffitt, Robert, NBER, China Working Grp, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA.'
author: Feng, Shuaizhang and Hu, Yingyao and Moffitt, Robert
author-email: 'shuaizhang.feng@foxmail.com

  yhu@jhu.edu

  moffitt@jhu.edu'
author_list:
- family: Feng
  given: Shuaizhang
- family: Hu
  given: Yingyao
- family: Moffitt
  given: Robert
da: '2023-09-28'
doi: 10.1016/j.jce.2017.02.004
eissn: 1095-7227
files: []
issn: 0147-5967
journal: JOURNAL OF COMPARATIVE ECONOMICS
keywords: 'Unemployment rate; Labor force participation rate; China; Economic

  transition'
keywords-plus: ECONOMIC-REFORM; CHILD-CARE; INEQUALITY; STATISTICS; GROWTH; INCOME
language: English
month: MAY
number: '2'
number-of-cited-references: '32'
pages: 304-324
papis_id: 4a505ce00e18dbfbcebdae368290c18b
ref: Feng2017longrun
times-cited: '42'
title: Long run trends in unemployment and labor force participation in urban China
type: Article
unique-id: WOS:000405260300010
usage-count-last-180-days: '3'
usage-count-since-2013: '32'
volume: '45'
web-of-science-categories: Economics
year: '2017'