abstract: 'Purpose European welfare states, including Finland, have recently

  introduced reforms that aim to delay the average timing of retirement.

  The degree of success of these reforms will depend on future

  institutional and societal developments that influence retirement

  timing. The purpose of this paper is to identify such scenarios in the

  Finnish context.

  Design/methodology/approach The study employs the Delphi method by

  interviewing anonymous experts from a variety of relevant organisations

  and fields in Finland, then sending them a scaled on-line questionnaire

  from the initial findings to elicit views on the likelihood of different

  scenarios influencing retirement timing over the next 20 years.

  Findings While the experts perceived that a raised state pension age and

  a removal of early retirement options will inevitably delay retirement

  on average, multiple scenarios were believe to hinder this trend. These

  included domestic elderly care becoming more common, technology-induced

  restructuring of labour markets and shortening working weeks, all of

  which were associated with widening socioeconomic inequalities in

  retirement timing. The predicted inequalities were attributed to a

  polarisation concerning older workers'' abilities to extend their careers

  and to plan their retirement. The planned mass privatisation of health

  and social services in Finland was perceived to accelerate this outcome.

  Practical implications The study suggests that a significant policy

  challenge in face of upcoming societal trends is to make delayed

  retirement a more equally viable option.

  Originality/value This paper demonstrates the usefulness of scenario

  building for anticipating possible developments that may influence the

  success of policies aimed at delaying retirement.'
affiliation: 'Niemi, T (Corresponding Author), Univ Helsinki, Dept Social Res, Helsinki,
  Finland.

  Niemi, Tuukka, Univ Helsinki, Dept Social Res, Helsinki, Finland.

  Komp, Kathrin, Univ Helsinki, Fac Social Sci, Helsinki, Finland.'
author: Niemi, Tuukka and Komp, Kathrin
author-email: tuukka.niemi@helsinki.fi
author_list:
- family: Niemi
  given: Tuukka
- family: Komp
  given: Kathrin
da: '2023-09-28'
doi: 10.1108/IJSSP-04-2018-0067
eissn: 1758-6720
files: []
issn: 0144-333X
journal: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SOCIOLOGY AND SOCIAL POLICY
keywords: Scenarios; Ageing; Pension reform; Retirement age; Social change
keywords-plus: 'LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS; PENSION REFORM; AGE; GERMANY; DETERMINANTS;

  DECISIONS; ATTITUDES; POLICIES; PEOPLE; EUROPE'
language: English
number: 11-12
number-of-cited-references: '53'
pages: 1071-1085
papis_id: a08f108dcb919bf4c53868f44f596c59
ref: Niemi2018retirementtiming
times-cited: '1'
title: 'Retirement timing in a future welfare state: a Finnish Delphi study'
type: Article
unique-id: WOS:000445061900010
usage-count-last-180-days: '0'
usage-count-since-2013: '10'
volume: '38'
web-of-science-categories: Sociology
year: '2018'