abstract: 'Objective We investigate whether there are changes over time in years in

  good health people can expect to live above (surplus) or below (deficit)

  the pension age, by level of attained education, for the past (2006),

  present (2018) and future (2030) in the Netherlands. Methods We used

  regression analysis to estimate linear trends in prevalence of four

  health indicators: self-assessed health (SAH), the Organization for

  Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) functional limitation

  indicator, the OECD indicator without hearing and seeing, and the

  activities-of-daily-living (ADL) disability indicator, for individuals

  between 50 and 69 years of age, by age category, gender and education

  using the Dutch National Health Survey (1989-2018). We combined these

  prevalence estimates with past and projected mortality data to obtain

  estimates of years lived in good health. We calculated how many years

  individuals are expected to live in good health above (surplus) or below

  (deficit) the pension age for the three points in time. The pension ages

  used were 65 years for 2006, 66 years for 2018 and 67.25 years for 2030.

  Results Both for low educated men and women, our analyses show an

  increasing deficit of years in good health relative to the pension age

  for most outcomes, particularly for the SAH and OECD indicator. For high

  educated we find a decreasing surplus of years lived in good health for

  all indicators with the exception of SAH. For women, absolute

  inequalities in the deficit or surplus of years in good health between

  low and high educated appear to be increasing over time. Conclusions

  Socio-economic inequalities in trends of mortality and the prevalence of

  ill-health, combined with increasing statutory pension age, impact the

  low educated more adversely than the high educated. Policies are needed

  to mitigate the increasing deficit of years in good health relative to

  the pension age, particularly among the low educated.'
affiliation: 'Valverde, JRR (Corresponding Author), Erasmus MC, Dept Publ Hlth, Rotterdam,
  Netherlands.

  Valverde, Jose R. Rubio; Mackenbach, Johan P.; Nusselder, Wilma J., Erasmus MC,
  Dept Publ Hlth, Rotterdam, Netherlands.

  De Waegenaere, Anja M. B.; Melenberg, Bertrand; Lyu, Pintao, Tilburg Univ, Sch Econ
  \& Management, Tilburg, Netherlands.'
article-number: '859'
author: Valverde, Jose R. Rubio and Mackenbach, Johan P. and De Waegenaere, Anja M.
  B. and Melenberg, Bertrand and Lyu, Pintao and Nusselder, Wilma J.
author-email: rubiojose84@gmail.com
author_list:
- family: Valverde
  given: Jose R. Rubio
- family: Mackenbach
  given: Johan P.
- family: De Waegenaere
  given: Anja M. B.
- family: Melenberg
  given: Bertrand
- family: Lyu
  given: Pintao
- family: Nusselder
  given: Wilma J.
da: '2023-09-28'
doi: 10.1186/s12889-022-13223-8
eissn: 1471-2458
files: []
journal: BMC PUBLIC HEALTH
keywords: Ill-health; Retirement; Socioeconomic position
keywords-plus: 'SOCIOECONOMIC-STATUS; PAID EMPLOYMENT; ILL HEALTH; SULLIVANS METHOD;

  RETIREMENT AGE; DISABILITY; EXIT; INEQUALITIES; EXPECTANCY; WORK'
language: English
month: APR 29
number: '1'
number-of-cited-references: '58'
orcid-numbers: 'Melenberg, Bertrand/0000-0003-4195-8744

  De Waegenaere, Anja/0000-0001-7396-3789'
papis_id: cfdfefcb0725cddba098b2a7d30fbd68
ref: Valverde2022projectingyears
researcherid-numbers: 'Melenberg, Bertrand/IUM-2524-2023

  '
times-cited: '1'
title: Projecting years in good health between age 50-69 by education in the Netherlands
  until 2030 using several health indicators-an application in the context of a changing
  pension age
type: Article
unique-id: WOS:000788871700001
usage-count-last-180-days: '1'
usage-count-since-2013: '5'
volume: '22'
web-of-science-categories: Public, Environmental \& Occupational Health
year: '2022'