cite: Dustmann2012
author: Dustmann, C., & Schönberg, U.
year: 2012
title: Expansions in Maternity Leave Coverage and Children’s Long-Term Outcomes
publisher: "Economic journal: applied economics"
uri: https://doi.org/10.1257/app.4.3.190
pubtype: article
discipline: economics

country: Germany
period: 1979-1992
maxlength: 40
targeting: explicit
group: working mothers
data: national administrative Social Security Records (1975-2008)

design: quasi-experimental
method: difference-in-difference analysis; regression discontinuity
sample: 13000
unit: individual
representativeness: national, census
causal: 0 # 0 correlation / 1 causal

theory:
limitations: sample restricted to mothers who go on maternity leave; restricted control group identification
observation:
  - intervention: paid leave (6 months childcare)
    institutional: 1
    structural: 1
    agency: 0
    inequality: gender
    type: 1 # 0 vertical / 1 horizontal
    indicator: 0 # 0 absolute / 1 relative
    measures: income
    findings: sign. positive effects among all wage segments for mothers cumulative income 40 months after childbirth
    channels: provision of job protection and short-term monetary benefits
    direction: 1 # -1 neg / 0 none / 1 pos
    significance: 2 # 0 nsg / 1 msg / 2 sg
  - intervention: paid leave (36 months childcare)
    institutional: 1
    structural: 1
    agency: 0
    inequality: gender
    type: 1 # 0 vertical / 1 horizontal
    indicator: 0 # 0 absolute / 1 relative
    measures: income
    findings: marginally sign. negative effect for low-wage mothers after 10month paid leave; significant negative effects among for all mothers cumulative income for 36 month paid leave
    channels: long-term extension is unpaid leave, only providing job protection
    direction: -1 # -1 neg / 0 none / 1 pos
    significance: 2 # 0 nsg / 1 msg / 2 sg
  - intervention: paid leave (childcare)
    institutional: 1
    structural: 1
    agency: 0
    inequality: gender
    type: 1 # 0 vertical / 1 horizontal
    indicator: 1 # 0 absolute / 1 relative
    measures: employment (rtw share)
    findings: sign. increase in months away from work among all wage segments, positively correlated with length of paid leave; majority rtw after leave end, with slight decrease for 18-36month leave period
    channels:
    direction: -1 # -1 neg / 0 none / 1 pos
    significance: 2 # 0 nsg / 1 msg / 2 sg

notes: no sign. impact on child outcomes; possible negative effect for long-term leave due to child requiring external stimuli and lowered mother's income
annotation: |
  A study interested in the long-run effects on children's outcomes of increasing the period of paid leave for mothers in Germany.
  While the study focuses on the children's outcomes, it also analyses the effects on the return to work rates and cumulative incomes of the policies within the first 40 months after childbirth.
  It finds that, while short-term increases of paid leave periods (up to 6 months) significantly increased incomes, over longer periods (10-36 months) the cumulative incomes in fact decreased significantly,
  marginally for low-wage mothers for 10 month periods, and across all wage segments for 36 month periods.
  For the share of mothers returning to work, it finds that there is a significant increase in the months away from work among all wage segments for all paid leave period increases, positively correlated with their length.
  Still similar numbers of mothers return once the leave period ends, though with significant decreases for leave periods from 18 to 36 months.
  For its analysis of long-term educational outcomes on children, however, it does not find any evidence for the expansions improving children's outcomes, even suggesting a possible decrease of educational attainment for the paid leave extension to 36 months.
  Some limitations of the study include its sample being restricted to mothers who go on maternity leave and some control group identification restrictions possibly introducing some sampling bias.