author: Kuriyama, A., & Abe, N.
year: 2021
title: "Decarbonisation of the power sector to engender a 'Just transition’ in Japan: Quantifying local employment impacts"
publisher: Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews
uri: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110610
pubtype: article
discipline: development

country: Japan
period: 2016
maxlength:
targeting:
group: rural workers
data: Historical Data of Power Supply and Demand Record Data

design: simulation
method: multi-step projection modelling; use Gini coefficient
sample: 10
unit: region
representativeness: national
causal: 0 # 0 correlation / 1 causal

theory:
limitations: has to assume amount of generated power as stable square function increase 2016-2050; employment numbers based on initial estimated model data only
observation:
  - intervention: infrastructure
    institutional: 0
    structural: 1
    agency: 0
    inequality: spatial
    type: 1 # 0 vertical / 1 horizontal
    indicator: 0 # 0 absolute / 1 relative
    measures: employment
    findings: power sector decarbonisation positively impacts rural workers through increased employment probability
    channels: attachment of larger-scale renewable energy to rural sectors increases employment scarcity
    direction: 1 # -1 neg / 0 none / 1 pos
    significance: 2 # 0 nsg / 1 msg / 2 sg

notes: highest impact in construction and manufacturing sector, long-term large impact in power sector, stable impacts throughout in service sectors and others
annotation: |
  A study looking at the effects of Japan's move to decarbonise its energy sector on employment, especially rural employment.
  It finds that, while employment in general is positively affected, especially rural sectors benefit from additional employment probability.
  This is due to the renewable energy sector, while able to utilise urban areas for smaller scale power generation, being largely attached to rural areas for larger scale projects such as geothermal, wind power or large-scale solar generation.
  The study also suggests some possible inequality being created in between the different regions of Japan due to the Hokkaido region having limited transmission line capacity and locational imbalance between demand and potential supplies.
  Limitations include its design as a projection model with multiple having to make strong assumptions about initial employment numbers and their extrapolation into the future,
  as well as having to assume the amount of generated power to increase as a stable square function.
