From ce38024569a5875a0d86727540f0e750ea4d18fb Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Marty Oehme <contact@martyoeh.me>
Date: Mon, 29 Sep 2025 20:52:19 +0200
Subject: [PATCH] Add kernel analysis plots

---
 popcorn.py | 92 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++-----
 1 file changed, 85 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-)

diff --git a/popcorn.py b/popcorn.py
index a55100b..63af80a 100644
--- a/popcorn.py
+++ b/popcorn.py
@@ -305,21 +305,99 @@ def _(df_pkg_lazy: pl.LazyFrame):
     return
 
 
+@app.cell(hide_code=True)
+def _():
+    mo.md(r""" ## Kernel Analysis """)
+    return
+
+
 # - which kernels have been DL when? (simplified for semver)
 @app.cell
-def _(df_lazy):
-    kernel_df_lazy = df_lazy.select("date", "XuKernel")
-    kernel_df = (
-        kernel_df_lazy.with_columns(pl.col("XuKernel").struct.unnest())
+def _():
+    kernel_df_lazy = (
+        pl.scan_csv(
+            f"{DATA_CLEAN_DIR}/kernels/*.csv",
+            schema={
+                "date": pl.Date,
+                "kernel": pl.String,
+                "downloads": pl.UInt16,
+            },
+        )
         .fill_null(0)
-        # .unpivot(index="date", variable_name="kernel", value_name="downloads")
-        .collect()
+        .with_columns(pl.col("kernel").str.replace(r"(\d+\.\d+\.\d+).*", "${1}"))
+        .with_columns(
+            pl.col("kernel")
+            .str.replace(r"(\d+).*", "${1}")
+            .str.to_integer(dtype=pl.UInt8)
+            .alias("major_ver"),
+            pl.col("kernel").str.replace(r"(\d+\.\d+).*", "${1}").alias("minor_ver"),
+        )
+        .head(LIMIT_ROWS)  # FIXME: take out after debug
     )
 
-    df_lazy.collect()
+    kernel_df_v99 = (
+        kernel_df_lazy.filter(pl.col("major_ver") == 99).collect().select("date")
+    )
+
+    kernel_df_lazy = kernel_df_lazy.filter(pl.col("major_ver") != 99)
+    (
+        lp.ggplot(
+            kernel_df_lazy.with_columns(pl.col("major_ver").cast(pl.String))
+            .group_by("major_ver")
+            .agg(pl.col("downloads").sum())
+            .sort("major_ver")
+            .collect(),
+            lp.aes("major_ver", "downloads"),
+        )
+        + lp.geom_bar(stat="identity")
+        + lp.labs(
+            title="Kernel versions used",
+            caption="For each daily download, add up the currently running kernel version",
+        )
+    )
+    return
+
+
+@app.cell(hide_code=True)
+def _(kernel_df_v99: pl.DataFrame):
+    mo.md(
+        rf"""
+
+    When looking at the kernel versions used, we see a very strong jump between major kernel version
+    4 and major kernel version 5.
+
+    For this analysis we had to exclude {kernel_df_v99.select(pl.len()).item()} rows which were
+    apparently from the future, as they were running variations of major kernel version 99. In all
+    likelihood there is a custom kernel version out there which reports its own major version as 99.
+    The strange version starts appearing on {kernel_df_v99.select("date").row(0)[0]} and shows up
+    all the way until {kernel_df_v99.select("date").row(-1)[0]}.
+
+    """
+    )
+    return
 
 
 @app.cell
+def _(kernel_df_lazy: pl.LazyFrame):
+    (
+        lp.ggplot(
+            kernel_df_lazy.with_columns(pl.col("major_ver").cast(pl.String))
+            .select(["date", "major_ver", "downloads"])
+            .sort("date")
+            .group_by_dynamic("date", every="1w", group_by="major_ver")
+            .agg(pl.col("downloads").sum())
+            .collect(),
+            lp.aes("date", "downloads", color="major_ver"),
+        )
+        + lp.geom_line()
+        + lp.labs(
+            title="Kernels over time",
+            caption="For each daily download, count used kernel versions",
+        )
+    )
+
+
+@app.cell(hide_code=True)
 def _():
     mo.md(
         r"""