From 08737e1baa1b862d5f0847a109987c67fb0d44de Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Marty Oehme <contact@martyoeh.me>
Date: Mon, 29 Sep 2025 21:27:27 +0200
Subject: [PATCH] Add in-text kernel usage dates

---
 popcorn.py | 48 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++------
 1 file changed, 42 insertions(+), 6 deletions(-)

diff --git a/popcorn.py b/popcorn.py
index 63af80a..04d8641 100644
--- a/popcorn.py
+++ b/popcorn.py
@@ -379,14 +379,18 @@ def _(kernel_df_v99: pl.DataFrame):
 
 @app.cell
 def _(kernel_df_lazy: pl.LazyFrame):
+    weekly_kernel_df = (
+        kernel_df_lazy.with_columns(pl.col("major_ver").cast(pl.String))
+        .select(["date", "major_ver", "downloads"])
+        .sort("date")
+        .group_by_dynamic("date", every="1w", group_by="major_ver")
+        .agg(pl.col("downloads").sum())
+        .collect()
+    )
+
     (
         lp.ggplot(
-            kernel_df_lazy.with_columns(pl.col("major_ver").cast(pl.String))
-            .select(["date", "major_ver", "downloads"])
-            .sort("date")
-            .group_by_dynamic("date", every="1w", group_by="major_ver")
-            .agg(pl.col("downloads").sum())
-            .collect(),
+            weekly_kernel_df,
             lp.aes("date", "downloads", color="major_ver"),
         )
         + lp.geom_line()
@@ -397,6 +401,38 @@ def _(kernel_df_lazy: pl.LazyFrame):
     )
 
 
+@app.cell(hide_code=True)
+def _(weekly_kernel_df: pl.DataFrame):
+    from datetime import date
+
+    last_kernel4: date = weekly_kernel_df.filter(pl.col("major_ver") == "4")[-1][
+        "date"
+    ].item()
+    first_kernel5: date = weekly_kernel_df.filter(pl.col("major_ver") == "5")[0][
+        "date"
+    ].item()
+    last_kernel5: date = weekly_kernel_df.filter(pl.col("major_ver") == "5")[-1][
+        "date"
+    ].item()
+    mo.md(
+        rf"""
+
+    A timeline analysis of the kernels used to report daily downloads shows that people generally
+    adopt new major kernel versons at roughly the same time. This change is especially stark between
+    major kernel versions 5 and 6, which seem to have traded place in usage almost over night.
+
+    The first time that major version 5 of the kernel shows up is on {first_kernel5}. From here, it
+    took a long time for the last of the version 4 kernels to disappear, coinciding with the big
+    switch between major version 5 and 6. The last time a major version 4 is seen is on
+    {last_kernel4}, while the last major version 5 kernels still pop up.
+    It would seem, then, that the people still running kernel version 4 used the opportunity of
+    everybody switching to the stable version of 6 to also upgrade their machines.
+
+    """
+    )
+    return
+
+
 @app.cell(hide_code=True)
 def _():
     mo.md(